2021 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Chiefs have been one of the very best teams in the NFL over the past several seasons and have built a dynastic combination of great infrastructure and roster. With head coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach leading some talented staff, the team’s management is as good as it gets. The roster is incredible as well and is led by arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has plenty of talent at his disposal including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce. In addition, receivers like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle round out the pass-catching room.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a first-round pick last year and is a talented runner, but this team will likely continue to be a pass-first team at all times.
Defensively, the Chiefs have become a very solid group as well following the introduction of Steve Spagnuolo as the defensive coordinator in 2019. The secondary is full of talent in do-it-all safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen, second-year cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, and fellow corners Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton. Chris Jones leads a stout defensive line while rookie Nick Bolton joins a talented linebacker corps alongside Anthony Hitchens and Willie Gay.
The Chiefs will be arguably the best offense in the NFL yet again, especially with their remade offensive line, and their defense continues to be no slouch either. A return to the Super Bowl seems highly likely for this group.
2020 Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats
Points For: 473 (29.6 per game), 6th of 32
Points Against: 362 (22.6 per game), 10th of 32
Passing Yards Per Game: 303.3
Rushing Yards Per Game: 112.4
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 236.2
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 122.1
Key Offseason Transactions
The Chiefs’ 2020-21 season ended with their offensive line getting absolutely exposed in the Super Bowl as Tampa Bay’s loaded pass rush made quick work of Kansas City upfront. General manager Brett Veach made the offensive line a clear priority in the offseason as they completely reworked the starting group. In addition, Kansas City had a few key re-signings as well as the departures of former contributors.
The first big domino was a trade for former Baltimore Ravens tackle Orlando Brown, a 2-time Pro Bowler. He’ll start at left tackle. Next, Kansas City signed OG Joe Thuney and C Austin Reiter who will provide an enormous upgrade in the interior of the offensive line.
Additionally, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif makes his return to the team after spending the past year working in a facility with COVID-19 patients. The only starting offensive lineman who was with the team last year is Mike Remmers.
In addition to those offensive linemen, the Chiefs also signed cornerback Mike Hughes, tight end Blake Bell, running back Jerick McKinnon, and safety Will Parks in free agency.
The Chiefs also resigned safety Daniel Sorensen, wide receiver Demarcus Robinson, and offensive tackle Mike Remmers. Robinson will likely take on a bigger role after the departure of Sammy Watkins in free agency.
The Chiefs’ draft went pretty well despite not having a first-round pick (they sent it to Baltimore in exchange for Orlando Brown). Nick Bolton is likely a Day One starter at linebacker with his three-down ability; he’s a future leader for this defense.
Creed Humphery will push Austin Reiter immediately for the starting center spot. Joshua Kaindoh can provide some strength, length, and speed off the edge. Noah Gray and Cornell Powell help round out the pass-catching corps. Trey Smith is a behemoth and an awesome long-term offensive line project.
2020 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Stats
ATS +/-: -1.5
Total +/-: -0.9
2021 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Outlook
The Chiefs were an incredibly fun team to watch last season but weren’t as fun to bet on. Despite a 16-3 record overall, they went just 8-11 against the spread as Vegas consistently made them big favorites in games that they struggled to run away with.
That led to the Chiefs having just the sixth-highest margin of victory despite having the best record in the NFL in the regular season (14-2).
Kansas City did well to improve their offensive line this offseason, and that should allow them to field more of a balanced, ball-control offense this season. With a more efficient offense, they could wind up covering the spread much more often this year.
Kansas City obviously features some elite offensive talent between Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, so their offense should be great once again this year.
Despite a loaded offense in Kansas City, the points total hit the over in just 9 of their 19 games last season. Some of that is the overly high mark set by Vegas in some of those games. However, Kansas City hasn’t been able to reach its high mark of being the top-scoring offense two years ago. With the remade offensive line, perhaps they hit the over more often this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds
The Chiefs are currently listed at around to win the Super Bowl and are the odds-on favorite in the NFL to win the championship. It’s crazy to think that this might actually be the most talented iteration of this Kansas City squad that we’ve seen under Andy Reid given how great this team has been.
Patrick Mahomes will benefit from a greatly improved offensive line while the skill position corps remains strong with Hill, Kelce, and Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has helped this team become a strong unit defensively as well as they’ve ranked top ten in points allowed in both of the last two years. Kansas City has everything you want out of a contender and more.
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Odds
It’s been an amazing run for Kansas City as they haven’t missed the playoffs since 2014 – that’s a stretch of six straight playoff runs. The Chiefs are one of the biggest locks in the field to make the playoffs and that’s reflected in their odds. That means that a $100 bet on the Chiefs to make the playoffs would earn you just $10 in a payout.
Especially in an expanded 7-team field, there’s hardly a conceivable way for Kansas City to not make the playoffs. Even in the event of a Patrick Mahomes injury, Chad Henne could lead this unbelievably talented team to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Odds
In addition to the best odds to win the Super Bowl and the best odds to make the playoffs, the Chiefs have the highest win total for this season at 12.5. Kansas City has won 11+ games in five straight seasons and 12+ games in each of the last three. Don’t forget that this season will feature a 17-game slate, too, so in order for the Chiefs to get to over 12.5 wins, they will need to go 13-4 or better.
The Chiefs do face some formidable opponents in the Ravens, Browns, Bills, Titans, Packers, Cowboys, and Steelers, but it’s hard to find five losses in their schedule, especially given their recent dominance over their division.
Kansas City Chiefs Players Futures Odds
Patrick Mahomes is a significant favorite to bring home his second NFL MVP award in four seasons as a starter. The last time he won the award, he threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. With a revamped offensive line and arguably the best skill position talent in the league, it’s no wonder the league’s most talented quarterback is the odds-on favorite for MVP.
Mahomes is also the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year as he’s tied with Derrick Henry. Travis Kelce () and Tyreek Hill () are arguably the best player at their respective position and are decent bets for OPOY as well.
The Chiefs have a handful of Defensive Player of the Year candidates, including the heart and soul of their defense, Tyrann Mathieu (). Fellow defensive back L’Jarius Sneed isn’t far behind at odds.
Chris Jones, the best player on their defensive line, is listed at +6500 odds, while Frank Clark is a long shot at. Jones is the intriguing pick here given his strong value. None of these players have ever won the Defensive Player of the Year award, and it’s unlikely they will this season.
Kansas City doesn’t have a standout candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year as their draft was focused on the defensive side of the ball. Nick Bolton is an interesting longshot for Defensive Rookie of the Year at about, especially if he earns the three-down role early on this season.
Finally, Andy Reid is +2800 to win Coach of the Year this season for the first time since 2002. His winning the award would likely require the Chiefs to go undefeated this season, but that’s not the craziest outcome from this NFL season.