Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals NFL Player Props (9/11/22)

The game between the Chiefs and Cardinals this week carries a high over-under total, and it should be fascinating to see Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL, square off. The Chiefs vs Cardinals matchup offers tons of exciting options in the player props market, and we’re taking a look at the best options here. You can use the player prop search tool below to locate the best odds for any given market.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

In exactly ten of Mahomes’s 20 games last season, he hit the over on his 2.5 passing touchdowns prop. By those numbers, the implied odds would be around even money. However, you can get +140 value on Mahomes to pass for three touchdowns this week. Why? Presumably, it’s because of the loss of Tyreek Hill.

There’s no question that the departure of Hill will be huge as the season goes on – he has 43 touchdowns over the last four seasons – but the Chiefs did a good job of adding receiving talent where they could with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore. Of course, Travis Kelce returns (more on him in a moment).

Mostly, I expect the Cardinals’ secondary to endure significant regression after it overperformed drastically ahead of where its personnel would dictate. Mahomes should come into this game with a chip on his shoulder after the meltdown against the Bengals in the playoffs, and I love getting the plus-money value on this prop.

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions and 80.5 Receiving Yards

The Cardinals performed rather well against tight ends last year – they ranked 2nd in the NFL in DVOA against the position and allowed just 5.9 catches for 35.8 yards per game to tight ends. However, they faced a very light schedule of opposing tight ends, and George Kittle had a performance of six catches for 101 yards and one touchdown against them.

Travis Kelce isn’t like most tight ends, and I expect him to have a great game in Week 1 along with Patrick Mahomes. He’ll be even more of a focal point to start the year without Tyreek Hill, especially with three of the team’s projected top four wide receivers having never caught a pass from Mahomes. With a high projected overall total in this game, I like the Chiefs to have an excellent offensive output, and Kelce should be at the center of it.

Marquise Brown Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

The beginning of last season was excellent for Marquise Brown as he averaged 5.6 catches for 90.2 yards over his first five games, and he scored five touchdowns over that stretch. Against the Chiefs, he had six catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. While I’m a huge fan of Lamar Jackson, there’s no doubt Brown is now with a passer who will accentuate his downfield receiving more prominently in Kyler Murray.

The Cardinals are entering this season down key pieces on offense. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games, Rondale Moore is working through a hamstring injury, and Zach Ertz is dealing with a calf issue. Marquise Brown was already likely to be heavily featured after Arizona traded a first-round pick for him, but that will be even more the case with these potential absences.

This game has the highest over-under total of the week, and the Cardinals should be in a pass-heavy game script with the Chiefs being six point favorites. I believe Kliff Kingsbury will attempt to incorporate Marquise Brown into the game plan heavily, and I love the opportunity to bet on Hollywood in his first game with his former college quarterback in the NFL.