The Chiefs and Broncos meet in a divisional rematch in Week 18 as Kansas City will look to extend a 12-game winning streak against Denver. With injuries on both sides of the ball and questionable motivation levels in this game, handicapping player props is extremely difficult. However, I believe I have found some decent values for this game you can exploit. You can use the player prop search tool below to compare odds from different sportsbooks in your betting market.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Search Tool
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
I love the value you are getting on this prop, as I have seen the odds as high as 2-to-1 on some sportsbooks. Mahomes has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns over his last four games as he is starting to improve his play after a cold stretch, and this could serve as an excellent tune-up game for him before the playoffs begin. Denver’s pass defense has been elite this year, and they held Mahomes without a touchdown in the first matchup, but the team’s two starting cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain II and Ronald Darby have been ruled out. Kareem Jackson is also on Injured Reserve. The tricky part of this prop is knowing how much Mahomes will play, but the Chiefs can still put themselves in a position to take the top seed in the conference with a win this week and a Titans’ loss.
Tim Patrick Under 2.5 Receptions
This line has been juiced considerably towards the over, which is confusing. With Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton healthy, Patrick has taken a bit of a backseat in the offense and is averaging just two receptions per game over his last five games. Against the Chiefs just a few weeks ago, Patrick caught just one pass. While the matchup against Kansas City is decent on paper, the Broncos have limited Drew Lock’s passing volume as the starter to protect him – he’s averaging just 16.5 pass completions per game over his last two starts. With limited passing volume in the offense, I’m willing to bet on another limited game from the Broncos’ WR3.
Byron Pringle Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards
With Patrick Surtain II and Ronald Darby not playing this week, the Broncos’ secondary is going to be stretched thin, and they’ll surely put the bulk of their defensive attention on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Byron Pringle has benefitted from playing alongside those two elite pass-catchers this season with some big gains through the air, and he has surpassed this number in five of his last seven games. I don’t mind targeting Pringle’s receiving yards, currently listed at about 29.5, but you only need one play to hit the longest reception prop, and I bet he gets a long gain at some point in this game.
Noah Fant Under 4.5 Receptions
On the heels of a six-catch, 92-yard performance for Fant, one of his best of the season, I’m fading him this week. The Broncos had a clear game plan to attack the Chargers’ tight end defense as they have struggled against the position this year, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA against TEs. The Chiefs rank 14th against TEs in DVOA, so it’s not nearly as exploitable a matchup. Like I mentioned with Tim Patrick, the Broncos have been limiting Drew Lock’s passing attempts to the point that it makes it very difficult to trust any single pass-catcher outside of perhaps Jerry Jeudy. There isn’t a ton of value I love in this game, but I don’t think Fant replicates his stellar performance from last week.