Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (9/25/22)

Get NFL player props and picks for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup on (9/25/22)

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks

The Chiefs play on the road against the Colts this week, and Indianapolis is in desperate need of a win after starting 0-1-1 against the Texans and Jaguars. Kansas City enters the building with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce ready to turn up against a porous Indianapolis defense, and I’m looking to target their player props this week. Take a look at the player prop search tool above to find the best values on props in your market.

Patrick Mahomes Over 287.5 Passing Yards and Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

Patrick Mahomes owns Gus Bradley. Mahomes was a combined 55 of 74 passing (74.3%) with 664 yards and seven touchdowns in two games against Bradley’s Raiders defense last year. He’s thrown for 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions in seven career games against the Bradley defense. I rushed to bet Mahomes props as soon as they went up this week, as it appears Bradley is staunchly devoted to his system.

Bradley was asked about his previous lack of success against Mahomes, and he responded by saying that “points wise, [they] held him down last year.” If Bradley considers that success, that makes me very excited for what Mahomes will do to an Indianapolis defense that just allowed Trevor Lawrence to complete 83% of his passes and ranks as the fourth-worst pass defense by DVOA.

I made the Chiefs’ team total over 27.5 points one of my best bets of the week, and I can’t wait to see Mahomes carve up the Colts. The wide receiver room has been inconsistent, and it’s difficult to know which receiver to trust on any given week, but I have high confidence in Mahomes succeeding in this matchup.

Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards and Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Last week was tough for Travis Kelce as he was guarded by the elite Derwin James and finished with just five catches for 51 yards, but this matchup provides an excellent opportunity for a bounce back. The Colts allowed Evan Engram to finish with seven catches for 46 yards last week after O.J. Howard scored two touchdowns on just two catches against them last week.

The Colts rank second-worst in the NFL in pass defense DVOA against the tight end position this year per Football Outsiders after ranking 21st last year. Travis Kelce will turn 33 years old later this year, but he’s still at the top of his game as he leads all tight ends in PFF grades this season. I’ll be looking to utilize the Mahomes-Kelce stack in DFS lineups this week, and I’m betting both of their player props in such a juicy matchup.

Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions

Yikes, Matt. With four interceptions through two games, Ryan is tied for the league lead in turnover-worthy play rate, and he has frankly looked terrible to start this season. The presumed returns of Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce this week will help Ryan’s passing viability, but I’m still expecting the Colts to get down early and need to rely on Ryan’s arm. In that type of negative game script, Ryan could be pressing like he was last week, and the Chiefs are an opportunistic defense who can take advantage of his mistake-prone nature.