Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)

Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/22) matchup

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks

Sunday Night Football this week features two AFC West teams who have played some brilliant games in recent years. The Chiefs and Chargers renew hostilities in this primetime affair, and there are plenty of player prop values on the board that I’m excited to discuss. You can use the Chiefs vs. Chargers player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks in your market. Let’s get to work.

Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards and 2+ Touchdowns (+105 DraftKings)

At long last, Justin Herbert gets his top wide receivers back tonight. At the time I’m writing this, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are expected to play on Sunday Night Football, and barring any last minute setbacks, it appears that will be the case. Herbert must be thrilled as this season certainly hasn’t been easy on him.

Herbert has only been over this passing yardage line in one of his last five games, and we actually cashed in on the under on this prop last week against the 49ers. However, this is quite a favorable matchup for him. Kansas City has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game and they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA.

This is also a matchup Herbert has found a lot of success in through his career. He’s thrown for 280+ yards in four of five games against the Chiefs and he’s averaging 2.6 passing touchdowns in those five games. Let’s bet on Herbert finally busting out of his slump with a big primetime performance against a vulnerable defense.

I made this SGP on DraftKings by combining two props, but I’d be comfortable playing either one on their own. You’ll have to pay for some significant juice on the touchdowns line for Herbert, which is why I preferred to combine it with a reduced line on the passing yards.

Noah Gray Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-105 BetRivers)

Don’t look now, but Noah Gray is becoming a consistent part of the Chiefs’ offense. The second-year tight end has played on 40% or more of snaps in every game this season, and he’s starting to get more targets as well. In his last two games, he’s come up with 45 and 20 receiving yards.

Tonight, with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman out, Gray could take on more importance in the Chiefs’ passing game. He’s certainly proven capable, and Patrick Mahomes seems to trust him in high-leverage situations. With the attention paid to Travis Kelce, Gray often gets weaker coverage from defenders where he can take advantage.

Mike Williams Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)

Along with our Justin Herbert props, let’s get a Mike Williams prop into the fold as the wide receiver makes his return from a two-game absence due to a high ankle sprain. With the nature of that injury, I have some concerns about him reinjuring himself tonight, but the matchup is so juicy that we might have to override those.

The Chiefs have struggled against top wide receivers all season. According to Football Outsiders, they rank dead last in pass defense DVOA against WR1s and are allowing 8.9 catches for 91.2 yards per game to the position. Earlier this year, Williams had 113 receiving yards against the Chiefs, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him have another elite performance if the ankle holds up.

Kadarius Toney Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120 BetMGM)

So much for that debilitating injury… In Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs, he showed no ill effects of any lingering injuries, and he came up with five targets, which led all wide receivers. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman out tonight, the Toney breakout might be upon us.

Travis Kelce raved about Toney on his podcast after the game, and Mahomes looked his way several times. While Tyreek Hill is in his own stratosphere, Toney does seem to be the dollar store version with his 4.38-second 40-yard dash and elusiveness in a 5’11”, 193-pound frame. With juke moves for days, he’s very difficult to tackle in the open field.

The Chiefs had a clear role in mind for Toney when they traded for him, and while they may have been expecting it to take place more in the postseason, the injuries in this offense have paved the way for a greater role tonight. Look for Toney to take advantage in a big way. I also love his touchdown prop tonight.