The NFL is treating us to arguably the best Thursday Night Football matchup of the year with two divisional rivals playing for pride and important playoff positioning. The winner of this game will be in the driver’s seat in the division, and we can expect players to bring their A-game to win this crucial contest. Player props are always fun to bet on for primetime NFL matchups, and this week is no different. This article will present the support that I believe represents the best value. You can use the player prop search tool below to find the best odds in your market for the Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Search Tool
Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards
In three career games against the Chiefs, Justin Herbert has thrown for 298 yards per game. This season, Herbert is averaging 294 passing yards per game, and he has surpassed this line in four of his last six games. The Chiefs’ defense is improving rapidly, and they have allowed just 229.2 passing yards per game over their past five games, but they still rank 24th in passing yards allowed this season. If the Chargers win this game, it’s going to be with a steady diet of Justin Herbert deep shots to test the Kansas City secondary, and I believe he will be up to the challenge.
TNF Player Prop Video
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs went with a true RBBC last week with Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams, and Derrick Gore playing on 35% of the team’s snaps, but much of that had to do with the team blowing out the Raiders and winning by multiple scores as early as the first quarter. However, Edwards-Helaire is still clearly the team’s most talented running back, and this is a perfect matchup for him to exploit. The Chargers are allowing 141.2 rushing yards per game this season, the second-most in the NFL, and CEH ran for 100 yards the last time these teams played. I expect a heavy dose of rushing offense to keep the ball away from Herbert, and CEH should be at the center of that approach.
Darrell Williams Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
It may seem weird that I’m endorsing betting on two running backs from the same game, and I wouldn’t usually be willing to do that, but this is a rare instance where I believe that will be profitable. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire in and out of the lineup, Williams has quietly had a very productive season with an average of 29.7 rushing yards per game. Even over the past three games with CEH healthy, Williams has averaged 44.6% of snaps per game. Of course, the matchup is the main draw here, with the Chargers ranking last in the NFL in run defense. The game script could be working in the Chiefs’ favor with so many injuries and potential COVID-19 absences for the Chargers, but I expect Kansas City to be running the ball against this defense even in neutral game scripts. CEH and Williams should both have very productive nights.
Keenan Allen Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen is averaging 77.4 receiving yards per game this year, but he had hit this line in seven of his twelve games and had hit it in five straight games before the game against the Bengals in which the Chargers didn’t have to throw the ball much to win. COVID-19 speculation aside, it’s a great sign that Keenan Allen could return to practice on Wednesday when that wasn’t necessary to him playing in this pivotal Thursday night matchup. While the Chiefs have seen significant defensive improvement lately, they are still allowing the seventh-most passing yards this season, and Allen is a tough cover. He should have a reasonably productive game, and there is an excellent correlation between this prop and Herbert’s passing yards.