Last Week: 3-0
All Time Results: 116-107-2, +16.6 Units
San Francisco 49ers 1st Quarter (+148) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-Way) – .25 Units
1st Quarter Giants vs. 2nd Quarter Behemoths
The 49ers have been the best starters in the league, with an impressive +2.6 Scoring margin in the first quarter through 18 games. This makes sense. The 49ers have an elite offensive coaching staff – not only HC Kyle Shanahan, but one-day head coaches Mike McDaniel and Mike LaFleur as the run-game and pass-game coordinators, respectively. They are the best in the league at developing a script to take advantage of the weakness of the opposition over the first 15-20 plays.
Defensively as well, the 49ers are at their best to begin the game. Their pass rush has gotten tired and depleted late in several games, but with a full tank at the outset, they present a unique challenge to teams not accustomed to a squad that can get to the quarterback without blitzing.
Andy Reid in his own right is an offensive mastermind. But the genesis of the Chiefs unmatched firepower no longer stems from their coaching staff. Patrick Mahomes is the reason. This season the Chiefs have a -0.8 scoring margin in the 1st quarter. Compare that to their ridiculous +7.9 scoring margin in the 2nd quarter. I think – like Michael Jordan giving Ron Haper a couple of shots to start the game – Pat Mahomes spends the first couple drives reading the enemy. After he’s seen what coverages they run a couple of times, he takes advantage. Look no further than the 28 points he put up in the second period against the Texans. The Chiefs have scored 28 points in the 2nd quarter twice this season. Only one other team has accomplished this feat in any quarter this season (TEN vs. JAX, 3rd Q Week 13).
49ers Match-up Advantage Will Show Early
I love the 49ers to attack the Chiefs’ poor rush defense. The Chiefs rank 29th in Rush Defense according to DVOA. Against teams that rank in the bottom 5 in Rush Defense by this metric, the 49ers have averaged 41 points per game over three games. They scored 14 points in the 1st Quarter of each game.
Moreover, the Chiefs have proven susceptible to teams that run Zone-Blocking schemes, like the 49ers do. Against the four teams they have played that run primarily run Zone-Blocking concepts – the Jaguars, the Packers & the Titans twice – the Chiefs have allowed 5.6 yards per carry. That is almost a yard higher than the 4.7 YPC they have allowed against everyone else.
To profit from a +148 bet, a wager has to have a 40.3% or better of coming true. I think we have that and more here.
While some might argue that Jimmy G has never been on a stage this big, neither has Patrick Mahomes or any of the main players for the Chiefs. Moreover, Garoppolo at least has gone through the motions of a Super Bowl Sunday, winning two with the New England Patriots at the end of the 2014 and 2016 NFL Seasons. Garoppolo has shown up in every situation he’s been in. I don’t see any good reason to presume this stage will be any different. His 23-5 SU record is nothing to sneeze at. Small sample size, sure: but his +6.3 career ATS margin is by far the best ever, too. Still, people continue to doubt him.
A SB 54 fun fact for you: only two QBs in NFL history have a winning percentage of 80% or better. Garoppolo at 82.1 % and Mahomes at 80%. The winner takes the crown through the summer.
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