Get Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (10/23/22) matchup
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
The big news out of San Francisco this week is the trade acquisition of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, and we expect him to see at least some playing time in this matchup. How much remains to be seen, but we’ll need to be cognizant of his presence impacting player props for the 49ers. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values from the 49ers vs. Chiefs game. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best odds for this game. Let’s get to work.
George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (-115 Caesars)
George Kittle is coming off his best game of the season from a receiving standpoint as he caught eight passes for 83 yards against the Falcons. On the heels of that game, he’s entering another favorable matchup against the Chiefs who rank 18th in DVOA against the tight end position. The Chiefs haven’t faced a particularly daunting slate of tight ends – Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett, Jelani Woods, Cameron Brate, Jesper Holland, and Dawson Knox were the top receiving tight end against them each week.
The Chiefs have been primarily vulnerable against tight ends because they play two-high coverage at a 65% rate outside the red-zone, the league’s second-highest rate per TruMedia. When the 49ers face two-high defenses, Kittle leads the team with a 32% target share since returning to play in Week 3. That trend goes back to last season when he led the team with a 24% target share against two-high defenses.
Much of the inconsistency in Kittle’s receiving production comes from his elite blocking – he’s consistently one of the highest-graded blocking tight ends in football. However, the bulk of the Chiefs’ pass-rush threat comes from Chris Jones on the interior, and Kittle would be more beneficial in mitigating that as an outlet in the middle of the field rather than as an in-line blocker.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150 DraftKings)
It will always be difficult for me to not at least put a half-unit on Patrick Mahomes to throw for 3+ touchdowns when he’s sitting at this price. We’re getting an inflated number here because the Niners’ defense ranks first in EPA per dropback and third in success rate against quarterbacks, but they’ve faced the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA – they’ve faced Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Justin Fields so far.
With injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Charvarius Ward, Jason Verrett, and Talanoa Hufanga in the secondary, the Niners are much more vulnerable in this matchup than it appears at first glance. The Niners haven’t given up passing touchdowns in bulk, but they did allow both Fields and Mariota to throw for two touchdowns in their prior matchups. Mahomes has every ability to excel in any matchup, and with San Francisco’s elite run defense, look for the Chiefs to throw the ball more frequently when they get around the goal-line.
Travis Kelce Over Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110 FanDuel)
If Patrick Mahomes is going to throw for three touchdowns in this game, then it’s very likely that Travis Kelce will catch one of them. Kelce has scored seven touchdowns in six games this year, and while four of those came in that one game against the Raiders, Kelce leads all tight ends with 15 red-zone targets this season. He’s had at least one red-zone look in every game this season.
As I mentioned above, the 49ers haven’t allowed many touchdowns this season. However, they did just cough up a touchdown to Kyle Pitts, the first of his career that came on American soil. In the game that’s tied for the second-highest over-under total of the week, let’s bet on Patrick Mahomes hooking up with Kelce for six for the 43rd time since 2018.