Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (10/2/22)

Get NFL player props picks and odds for the Sunday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10/2/22).

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks

On Sunday Night Football, we’re set to see another duel between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. However, this game might be won by the defenses due to each quarterback’s early-season difficulties. While these might not be the same high-powered offenses as we’re used to, that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the player props market. Let’s go to work on some props for this primetime game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-105 DraftKings)

The Chiefs have struggled to run the ball this season as they have the fourth-worst rushing offense by DVOA, and their offensive line ranks just 23rd in adjusted line yards. That’s a bad recipe for success against a Tampa defense that has been great against the run for the past several years.

Rather than attempt to run the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I anticipate the Chiefs using CEH frequently in the passing game. Edwards-Helaire has averaged 38.3 receiving yards per game this season and he has nine targets over the last two weeks to Jerick McKinnon’s three. CEH has been an incredibly reliable part of the passing game for Patrick Mahomes.

The biggest cause for pause here is that the Bucs have allowed just 15 receiving yards per game to running backs, the lowest in the NFL. However, they allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to backs last season, and each game is its own microcosm. You can’t get too bogged down by those types of metrics this early in the year.

With Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling dealing with minor injuries, the Chiefs’ passing game could be more consolidated this week. Look for CEH to have a few receptions and well surpass this yardage total for the fourth-straight week.

Mike Evans Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel) and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115 DraftKings)

“That’s Tom Brady, what do you want me to do?!?” It didn’t take a professional lip reader to see what Mike Evans yelled at the referee after being ejected from the game in Week 2. He ran to his quarterback’s side as he was caught in a scuffle with Marshon Lattimore, and he was suspended for last week’s game. His absence clearly hindered Tampa’s offensive productivity.

This week, Mike Evans is back in the fold. While I try not to overvalue narratives in betting on player props, it’s difficult to ignore in this case. Evans will be hungry to help his team as he gets back on the field while Brady will be eager to target his top receiver to reward him for having his back.

The Chiefs have been solid against the pass this season, particularly as they lead the league in pressure rate, but they rank just 14th in pass defense DVOA. La’Jarius Sneed, Kansas City’s top corner, lines up primarily in the slot, and Evans should have success on the perimeter. This should be a great game for Mike Evans, and while I do have a stake in the under on this game, I like the Bucs’ offense to find more success than they did last week.

Tom Brady Over 37.5 Passing Attempts

The Buccaneers have tried to become a run-heavy team to help with their diminished pass-catching corps and offensive line, but it hasn’t worked. They are garnering 0.17 EPA per play on first down passes compared to -0.06 EPA per play on first down runs. Leonard Fournette is averaging just 4.0 YPC. However, that should change now that Tampa is trending in the right direction in terms of health.

The Chiefs’ pass rush has been relentless this season, registering pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. While the expected return of left tackle Donovan Smith will help Tampa on the outside, their inexperienced interior offensive line will struggle against Chris Jones who is tied with Aaron Jones for the most total pressures among interior defensive linemen at 14, per PFF.

The best way to mitigate the impact of that pass rush is to complete short passes, and the Bucs should have much better personnel to do that than they have as of late. Keep an eye on the injury report, but there’s a chance Tom Brady has a full complement of receivers for the first time this season. If he does, he has a great chance to surpass his completion prop for the second straight week.