Key Line Movement Ahead of NFL Week 18 Games

By Nate Weitzer | Dec 30, 2024, 2:55pm

Nearly every point spread has shifted ahead of NFL Week 18 action based on Week 17 results, with playoff seeding and divisions settled or still up for grabs. Teams that are locked into their seeds, or have nothing to play for, might elect to rest key players in the season finale. Sportsbooks will continue to adjust to reports about which teams are going for the win in a Week 18 slate that culminates with a showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions for the NFC North title and No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Below, we break down the initial movement from look-ahead lines ahead of Week 17 games to the opening numbers for Week 18. These shifts occur due to a number of factors, including playoff scenarios. The differences in line movement can help you find value when considering NFL Week 18 bets at your favorite sportsbook apps.

Week 18 NFL Line Movement

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: Denver Broncos -10.5 (-113) on BetRivers

This game has flown past the key number of 7 with the Broncos shifting from -6.5 to -9.5 at some books. The Chiefs have declared a plan to rest starters with the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, while the Broncos are in a must-win spot at home. A Denver loss would open the door for Cincinnati or Miami to grab the final wild card spot in the AFC. With Carson Wentz likely to start if Patrick Mahomes sits, the total has dropped from 41.5 to 39 points ahead of this AFC West game.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14.5 (-110) on BetRivers

This game has shifted on the spread and total with the Bucs looking to clinch the NFC South with a win at home. The Bucs were sizable 11.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line, but that’s up to 13.5 or 14 points at some books. The total has risen from 42.5 to 44 points after Tampa hung 48 points against Carolina last week, while the Saints continued to struggle defensively. The Saints are down several starters on both sides of the ball and are riding a three-game losing streak.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) on BetRivers

The Titans are favored for the fourth time this season and they’re 0-3 against the spread in those first three times. Tennessee has grown from a 2.5-point favorite to 4.5 points with the Texans locked into the No. 4 seed as AFC South champions. Coming off their worst performance of the year in a 31-2 loss to Baltimore on Christmas, the Texans could decide to play for a win to gain some momentum ahead of the playoffs. The Titans beat the Texans by a score of 32-27 in Houston in Week 12, but they have lost five straight since.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys: Washington Commanders -7 (-105) on DraftKings

The Cowboys have essentially been playing for pride over the entire second half of the season and provided some good results, including a 34-26 win in Washington in Week 12. The Commanders clinched a playoff berth with a 30-24 overtime win over Atlanta on Sunday night and are now playing to secure the No. 6 seed with a win at Dallas. The spread has shrunk from -4.5 to -3.5 or -3 in favor of the Commanders, and the total is dipping from 47 points to 45.5 at some books.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-120) on FanDuel

The Eagles clinched the NFC East and the No. 2 seed last week, so they could rest starters in a meaningless season finale. That potential scenario has led this spread to shrink from Eagles -5.5 to -3.5 across the sports betting industry. The Giants snapped a 10-game losing streak last week by beating the Colts, to the chagrin of some fans hoping their team could clinch the No. 1 overall pick.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110) on BetRivers

The Bengals have won four straight, but they still need a win and losses by the Dolphins and Broncos to make the playoffs. Despite that longshot scenario, the Bengals have shifted from -1.5 to -3 favorites ahead of this AFC North finale, with the Steelers reeling on a three-game losing streak. The Steelers will be the No. 5 seed unless the Browns upset the Ravens.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -24.5 (-115) on FanDuel

We have a very small shift to this massive line, with the Ravens moving from -16.5 to -17.5 relative to the look-ahead line. The Ravens can clinch the AFC North title with a win and would fall to a wild card spot if they lose. The Browns have been non-competitive with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Detroit Lions -22.5 (-124) on FanDuel

This game has the highest stakes of Week 18, with the loser falling to the No. 5 spot as the top wild card in the NFC, while the winner gets a first-round bye as the top seed. The total is sitting well above any other game at 52.5 points, and the Vikings are catching 3 or 2.5 points depending on the book. That line could shift after Detroit plays in San Francisco on Monday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-110) on BetRivers

The Colts were eliminated from playoff contention with a 45-33 loss at the Giants last week and the Jaguars beat the Titans at home. Indianapolis has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 ahead of this matchup despite its poor performance in Week 17. The Colts have lost 10 straight games in Jacksonville dating back to 2015.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Buffalo Bills -3 (-114) on BetRivers

The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and Josh Allen indicated after a Week 17 win that the team might rest starters in a meaningless Week 18 matchup. The Patriots have moved through the key number from 3.5-point underdogs to 2.5 points at most books.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: San Francisco 49ers +15.5 (-118) on DraftKings

Neither of these teams has playoff hopes, and both are banged up heading into Week 18. With the 49ers set to play on the road on a short week after potentially going all out to beat the Lions on Monday night, the spread has dipped from -2.5 to -1 in favor of the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) on FanDuel

The Rams have clinched the NFC West and are likely locked into the No. 3 seed. While the spread hasn’t moved ahead of their finale, the total is up from 41.5 to 44.5 points with the Seahawks potentially facing some backup defenders on the fast track at SoFi Stadium.