Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat NBA Player Props & Picks (11/6/23)

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers face the Miami Heat this Monday (11/6/23). Get Lakers vs. Heat player props best bets, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat Player Prop Picks

Which players will crush their props in this Lakers vs. Heat matchup?

Tyler Herro Over 24.5 Points (-105 DK)

After an off-season of being dangled in trades, Tyler Herro has started the season firing on all cylinders. He’s averaging 25.8 points on excellent 45/45/88 shooting splits and ranks 27th in usage percentage across the NBA. The vast majority of his damage comes via the pick-and-roll, as he owns the 7th most pick-and-roll ball handler possessions per game. 

Enter the Los Angeles Lakers, who are bleeding the third largest points per possession to pick-and-roll ball handlers and the 4th most points per game to point guards. They lack a strong point-of-attack presence, especially with D’Angelo Russell owning a large role. In addition, the Lakers have surrendered the 11th most pace adjusted open plus wide open three-point attempted. Therefore, Herro’s off-ball shooting should also shine here. 

Herro needs to score 25 points about 51 percent of the time based on his odds for the bet to hold a positive expected value. 

SGP: LeBron James 20+ Points & Bam Adebayo 2+ Assists (-114 FD)

Although the Lakers want to limit LeBron James’ regular season minutes, he’s cleared 35 minutes in four of five games since the opener. The one blemish was a 32-minute performance against Orlando. He faces a Heat defense that has allowed the 5th most points per game to power forwards and the 8th largest opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area. LeBron James should bulldoze his way to the rim against Miami’s undersized frontcourt, and Bam Adebayo will hesitate to challenge him with Anthony Davis lurking. Plus, James won’t be able to resist putting on a show in Miami, where he won two championships. 

Meanwhile, the Lakers have surrendered the 5th most assists per game to centers. Due to Anthony Davis’ elite rim protection and Los Angeles’ porous three-point defense, centers are racking up assists kicking it out to shooters. Tyler Herro’s increased usage has reduced Adebayo’s playmaking duties, but the All-Star center is still an effective passing hub. 

This same game parlay must hit about 53 percent of the time. 

Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 3PM (-115 DK)

Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis is averaging 3.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. Due to his brilliance, the Lakers are allowing the 7th lowest opponent restricted area field goal percentage. Opponents are finding far more success launching from deep compared to challenging Davis. 

Butler is a slasher by nature who rarely settles from three, but Davis will change his mindset here. Look for “Jimmy Buckets” to slightly alter his shot profile and knock down a three-pointer. Butler needs to accomplish this feat about 53 percent of the time based on his odds.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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