Las Vegas Raiders Vs. Denver Broncos NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)

Get Las Vegas Raiders Vs. Denver Broncos player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/22) matchup

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Las Vegas Raiders Vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Picks

As a Broncos fan, it’s some kind of cruel punishment that I keep getting assigned my team’s player props articles by our site runner. At least I’m not having to write matchup previews. I’m so tired of writing about my pathetic team.

Anyhow, you’re not here to hear me rant about the Broncos, and if you want more of that, you can check out our YouTube channel where I went on quite the tirade against Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson this week.

While this game is likely to be a terrible watch, that doesn’t mean we can’t extract some value in the player props market, which is what I’ll try to do here. You can check out our main NFL Player Props page to see my full official card.

You can also use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for the Raiders vs. Broncos game. Let’s get to work.

Josh Jacobs Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

I likely won’t be making any plays official from this game as I simply want to pretend this game isn’t happening as a Broncos fan, but this is the first place I’d look for value. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards against Denver earlier this season in the game that kickstarted his absurd 3-game stretch of 140+ rushing yards.

That performance against the Broncos wasn’t fluky as he’s averaged 102 rushing yards across six career games against his divisional rival. He would have hit the over on this rushing total prop in five of those six games, as well.

Denver has the best pass defense in the league by many metrics, but their run defense has not been up to par. They rank 20th in run defense DVOA, 23rd in PFF tackling, and 24th in yards per carry allowed. While they shut down Derrick Henry last week, that was anomalous to the rest of their season, and Jacobs should have a strong effort.

DraftKings Banner Update $1,050

Davante Adams Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yards (-120 DraftKings)

Speaking of that elite pass defense, Davante Adams was able to catch nine passes for 101 yards in the prior game against the Broncos despite being blanketed by likely All Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain. That matchup was one of the best individual WR-CB duels we’ve seen all year.

Surtain shadowed Adams on 71% of his routes in that game per Next Gen Stats, and he allowed an average of just 1.3 yards of separation. The further downfield Surtain covers, the better he is at it – opposing quarterbacks are just 4-18 when targeting him 10+ yards downfield according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Broncos are allowing 20+ yards on just 5.3% of opposing pass plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, partially due to Surtain’s elite play. I wouldn’t expect that to change this week, particularly with Adams listed as questionable with an abdominal injury that would limit him if he does play.

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Melvin Gordon Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120 BetMGM)

The Raiders’ run defense has played surprisingly well this season as they ninth in rate of contacting the opposing RB at or behind the line of scrimmage. Once runners get to the second level, they haven’t been nearly as effective, as you saw with Jonathan Taylor ripping off some long runs last week.

However, Melvin Gordon simply isn’t a dynamic runner. He ranks 37th out of 41 qualified running backs with just 1.0 yards before contact per attempt, and that is hurt by the complete lack of continuity along the Broncos’ offensive line. He’s also PFF’s worst graded running back with 50+ carries this year.

Gordon has gone under this rushing yardage total in four straight games and in six of his last seven games. He still has been leading the backfield in snap share lately, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Latavius Murray or Chase Edmonds start to get more work given Gordon’s complete ineffectiveness.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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