Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (11/6/22)

Get Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars player prop picks & odds for the (11/6/22) matchup

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks

In a battle of two-win teams, the Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) on Sunday, November 6. Despite having better numbers on both offense and defense this season, the Jaguars are a 1.5-point home underdog in this matchup with the over/under set at 47.5. This is the third-consecutive home game for Jacksonville and the second-consecutive road game for Las Vegas, who got blown out 24-0 by the Saints last week.

This game features two of the top eight rushers so far this season in the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs (676 yards, 5th) and the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr. (571, 8th). Are these two talented running backs primed for another big game this week?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Raiders vs. Jaguars matchup.

Travis Etienne Jr. over 76.5 rushing yards (-115)

Etienne is finally starting to show the talent that made the Jaguars select him with the 25th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has increased his rushing output in each of the last four games and went over 100 yards in the last two, including a dominant 156-yard performance against a strong Denver defense last week. With James Robinson shipped off to New York, Etienne has the backfield virtually all to himself now, and the Jaguars fed him 24 rushes last week.

The Raiders bring a top-10 rushing defense into this matchup, allowing 108.6 yards per game on the ground, but they have also allowed opposing running backs to hit the over on their rushing yards in six out of eight games this season. Etienne has hit the over on his rushing prop line in seven out of eight games this year, and sportsbooks haven’t quite adjusted to his recent emergence. Take advantage while you can.

As a bonus pick, I also like Etienne’s receiving yards prop (22.5, -115) and his combined rushing plus receiving prop (103.5, -120). The Raiders give up the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, and have allowed a running back to go over their receiving yards prop in six out of seven games this season. I still like the rushing prop the best, but would not be surprised Etienne hit on all of these.

Josh Jacobs over 76.5 rushing yards (-115)

Jacobs has been an absolute workhorse for the Raiders this year. Only five running backs have more rushing attempts per game than Jacobs’ 17.3, and his average was 18.5 before a negative game script last week against the Saints limited him to only 10 carries. That was the first week all season that Jacobs failed to hit the over on his rushing prop, and it seems unlikely the Raiders would find themselves in a similarly negative game script this week.

Jacobs is averaging 96.6 rushing yards per game after going for at least 143 yards in three consecutive games from weeks 4-7 (there was a bye week in there). The Jaguars were the best run defense in the league through the first three weeks, but have tailed off since then, allowing rushing performances of 134 yards (Miles Sanders), 110 yards (Saquon Barkley), and 99 yards (Dameon Pierce) over the last five weeks. The Jaguars have been one of the worst tackling teams this season with 47 missed tackles (tied for 4th most), while Jacobs is tied for fifth in the league in broken tackles (12) and is second in yards after contact.

Another big game is coming for Jacobs this week.

As a bonus pick, I also like Jacobs to have a nice game catching the ball out of the backfield. The Jaguars give up the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, and have allowed a running back to go over their receiving yards prop in seven out of eight games this season (and the one that didn’t, Saquon Barkley, missed by 0.5 yards). Jacobs’ receiving yards prop line is 20.5 yards (-115) and his combined rushing plus receiving yards line is 103.5 (-115). I like either of those as an alternative to the rushing prop, but I still think the rushing prop is the safest pick.

Evan Engram over 3.5 receptions (-175)

Engram has emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target over the last four weeks, leading the team over that span in both catches (19) and targets (29). He has at least four catches in each of those games and in six out of eight games overall this season. The Raiders are allowing an average of 5.14 receptions per game to tight ends, 23rd in the league.

I also like Engram’s receiving yards prop of 39.5, which has also hit in each of the last four games, and you’re getting better odds on that one at -105. But volume is more predictable than yardage, so I feel better about the receptions than the yards this week.