Get Raiders vs. Chiefs player prop odds & picks for the Monday Night Football meeting on (10/10/22)
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
On Monday Night Football, we get an exciting AFC West matchup with significant playoff implications. The Chiefs are coming off a massive win over the Buccaneers and await the Bills in Week 6, but they can’t overlook a Raiders team that is unlucky to be 1-3 this season. There are exciting skill position players on both of these teams, which sets up for a great game for player prop value. This article will focus on player props from this game, and you can search for the best values in your market in the player prop search tool above. Let’s get to work.
Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
This is the game. This is the reason the Raiders traded all of that draft capital to acquire Davante Adams over the offseason, and I fully expect him to be a massive part of their offensive game plan. Adams has been a bit hit or miss this season with two games over 100 yards and two games under 40 yards, but that’s through no fault of his own, and I expect him to get more consistent as the season goes on and this team figures out how to fully take advantage of his talent.
While the Chiefs beat the Buccaneers last week, they struggled mightily to contain Mike Evans – he finished with eight catches for 103 yards and two scores. Adams is arguably a better version of the big-bodied, contested-catch X-receiver profile that Evans fills. Kansas City lost Charvarius Ward over the offseason, and I still have questions about their cornerbacks. I don’t trust them to contain Adams in this game.
Derek Carr Over 7.5 Rushing Yards
While certainly not perceived as a “mobile” quarterback, Derek Carr has run for 9+ yards in each of his last three games and is averaging 22 yards per game over that span. He’s shown a willingness to scramble when needed as he’s playing behind a poor offensive line that ranks 22nd in pressure rate allowed and is highly inexperienced, particularly on the interior.
That inexperience on the interior will be a problem in this game as the Chiefs boast Chris Jones, one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL, who plays the three-technique position. As Jones gets pressure in the middle of the line of scrimmage, look for Carr to scramble to the outside and pick up yards on the ground. Carr could hit the over on this prop on just one play, which is always a nice added assurance.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards
Patrick Mahomes went over on this prop in each of his last eleven games in 2021, but he’s only done it in two of four games this year. Much of that has to do with the departure of Tyreek Hill as the speedy wide receiver removes a YAC element from the team’s passing game. Mahomes torched the Raiders twice last season, and he went over on this prop in both games, but deeper analysis is needed here.
Last year, while most teams figured out how to deploy Cover 2 defense to limit the Chiefs’ elite passing offense, the Raiders were stuck in single-high schemes with defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. In addition, the Raiders had inexperienced personnel on the defensive side that has developed heading into this season.
The Raiders replaced Bradley with Patrick Graham, the Giants’ defensive coordinator last season who limited Mahomes to 275 passing yards in a near-upset on Monday Night Football. Mahomes’s longest passing completion in that game was 24 yards, and he only averaged 5.7 yards per attempt. With better defensive personnel and a much better scheme, the Raiders’ defense is better-equipped to handle the Chiefs’ offense than most realize.