Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both were finally drafted after months of knowing their landing spot. Lawrence was headed for a first overall pick for the last two years, while Wilson ended up being the New York Jets favorite. Now that everything is official, DraftKings Sportsbook has listed passing yard props for the two rookie quarterbacks. The two are close, but still, a few hundred off, and all props are listed with odds of -112, meaning a $100 wager on any would net you $90. A note to remember with bets this year is that the NFL will be playing a 17-game schedule.
Trevor Lawrence – 4150.5 Passing Yards
The passing yards prop has been set at 4,150/5 for Trevor Lawrence, which is a high number. Only four rookie quarterbacks have thrown for over 4,000 yards, and only two have hit this prop mark. Those two were Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert. Luck was one of the top prospects we have ever seen at the position, and Lawrence is certainly in that mix as well. The other quarterbacks to throw over 4,000 yards in their rookie season were Jameis Winston and Cam Newton. Lawrence will need to average 244.1 yards per game and play all 17 games to get to the over.
Given that the Jaguars and the rest of the NFL will play 17 games this season, Lawrence will have an extra game to hit this mark in comparison to the names above. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t bad but still isn’t good enough to keep teams at bay, meaning Lawrence will certainly be throwing the ball often. He also has plenty of weapons to work with, and they good be adding more in the draft, given they have plenty of picks to work with. The mark is set at -112 for both the over and the under at the moment.
Zach Wilson – 3825.5 Passing Yards
Zach Wilson’s prop has been set just a shade under the 4,000-yard mark but still a high total given the history of rookie quarterbacks and their numbers. As pointed out below, all five of those options hit the Wilson mark, and all but Murray would have hit the Lawrence mark. Wilson comes in not quite as hyped as a prospect as Lawrence, but the ceiling is there. He steps into New York, who is in a far better spot than they were last year, given the firing of Adam Gase and the addition of Corey Davis. Both Davis, Crowder, and Mims will be the trio of wide receivers, which comes off as underrated a bit when looking at them. The Jets secondary needs some help as well, which bodes well for Wilson’s attempts. Wilson will need to average 225 yards per game this season to hit this mark.
What Numbers Would Have Looked Like In 17 Game Season
- Andrew Luck (2012) – 4,647.8 Yards
- Justin Herbert (2020) – 4,914.7 Yards
- Cam Newton (2011) – 4,303.4 Yards
- Jameis Winston (2015) – 4,294.2 Yards
- Kyler Murray (2019) – 3,954.2 Yards
- Dak Prescott (2016) – 3,897.4 Yards
Justin Herbert’s numbers really stand out here for one, but with the 17 game increase, four players would then have hit the over on the Lawrence prop and all would have hit on the Wilson prop.