Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/28/23)
The Detroit Lions battle the division rival Green Bay Packers in Thursday Night Football. Check out below for Lions vs. Packers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will accomplish this in the Lions vs. Packers game?
Amon-Ra St. Brown First Lions Touchdown (+400 BMGM)
St. Brown paces the Lions in target share, receptions, yards, red zone targets, and PFF’s expected touchdowns. He’s the clear top option in this offense and remains Jared Goff’s favorite target. Detroit is maximizing Goff’s arm, as he ranks eighth in touchdown percentage, twelfth in pass attempts, and eighth in Expected Points Added per Play. They also love to throw early, which has resulted in Detroit’s first touchdown being a passing touchdown in every game so far.
Green Bay’s secondary has only faced one legitimate aerial attack this season, and Derek Carr shredded them before his injury. Look for the Lions to capitalize, especially with David Montgomery far from full strength.
He must score Detroit’s first touchdown about 20 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Sam LaPorta First Lions Touchdown (+700 BMGM)
LaPorta has smashed expectations to start the season, as he holds the most receptions for a tight end through their first three games in NFL history. LaPorta ranks second in target share on the Lions behind St. Brown, and it’s clear that he’s established himself as the second option. Given his size and hands, LaPorta is a threat to score every week, especially with teams anxious to defend St. Brown and Gibbs.
As stated above, this Lions offense lives through the passing game. LaPorta must score the Lions first touchdown about 12 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. Considering his usage and talent, that’s an absolute steal!
Romeo Doubs First Packers Touchdown (+450 BMGM)
Christian Watson’s status remains unknown. Will he play? How many snaps if he does? It’s unclear until the game happens, but it’s wise to fade him until we see how his hamstring holds up. Jordan Love has looke crisp without him, as he is second in the NFL in touchdown percentage behind only Tua Tagovailoa. Doubs and Reed are doing most of the damage; they currently tie for the largest target share and most red zone targets.
Reed primarily works in the slot, and he faces a talented defender in rookie Brian Branch. Meanwhile, Doubs has the opportunity to exploit Detroit’s mediocre outside corners and injured safeties. This matchup heavily favors Doubs over Reed, and the odds reflect that too (Reed is +750 to score Green Bay’s first touchdown).
Doubs must score the first touchdown for Green Bay about 18 percent of the time here.
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