Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Thursday at 8:15pm EST in Green Bay as a home game for the Packers. The Lions are currently a -1.5 favorite and -118 on the moneyline while the total is set at 46. Read on for more Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers best bets and predictions as the Lions look to take a division lead with an outright win over their rivals.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet
It took all but three weeks for Lions fans to start believing that the preseason hype is real. After an unfortunate loss to the Seahawks, the Lions did the unthinkable and won a game off the backs of their defense. Even more impressive yet, they did so with their rush defense after being heralded as one of the weaker units going into the season.
As for the Packers, it was a less than stellar outing for three quarters of the contest. After going down a quick 0-17 to the anemic New Orleans Saints offense, the Packers luck turned toward their favor as Derek Carr was knocked out of the game. Taking advantage of a sluggish Saints unit after the injury, the Packers mounted a late comeback and secured the win. It was another unconvincing outing from their quarterback as Jordan Love still struggles to handle pressure and has skated by with his turnover worthy throws.
At some point regression will come as Jordan Love will once again find himself under pressure against the improved Detroit Lions defense. They rank top-15 in Def EPA with a brunt of their production coming from their defensive line generating pressure to the backfield. That pressure should be easy to come by this time around as the Packers offensive line is dealing with injuries. This will force Love into scrambling situations, forcing him to make low quality throws on the run while threading it into tight passing windows.
On the other end, it should be business as usual for the Lions offense as the Packers hover around average in Def EPA while dealing with injuries on that end as well. Should Jaire Alexander sit due to injury then that leaves a big void in the Packers coverage. They need as much help as they can get as the Lions excel at creating separation with their pass catchers as they streak across the middle of the field.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet: Detroit Lions ML
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
With advantages on both sides of the ball, oddsmakers opened the Lions as a -1.5 favorite. Bettors believe that number is about right, failing to take a stand on either end while keeping it the same since the open. Better yet for Lions backers, Goff’s history of struggling on the road will be negated as this game is expected to feature perfect weather. In any other scenario, Goff’s production takes a nosedive as he struggles outdoors on the road, creating issues with their consistency when trying to move down the field.
Speaking of offense, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a moderate pace as they opened the number at 46.5. Bettors believe that points may come at a slower pace, taking it down to as low as 45.5 in some shops as of writing. The under is enticing as the Lions defense is more than capable of stalling out the Packers offense while the Lions offense has sputtered at times as well with questionable play calling.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Key Injuries
While the Lions deal with the uncertainty of David Montgomery and Taylor Decker, the Packers injuries play a bigger role as their offense may once again be without playmakers Aaron Jones and Christian Watson.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Key Matchups
Can the Lions defense continue to limit the ground game?
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon Vs. Lions Front Seven
The brunt of Lions success last week came from halting the Falcons ground game, limiting the duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The defensive line did a great job at plugging the gaps while the second level screened down the edges and forced them back into the middle.
Brian Branch has been the best Detroit Lions player on defense today. Hands down.
— Booner (@boonersports) September 24, 2023
Aaron Jones is trending towards playing as their speed back while AJ Dillon plays as the bull back up the middle. Should the Lions continue to halt them at the line then Love will be forced into more throwing scenarios where he has teetered with danger throws and turnover worthy plays.