Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (12/26/22)

Get Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (12/26/22) matchup

Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Search Tool

Search any NFL player in the search box to bring up their
NFL player props

Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks

On Monday Night Football, we’ll see the Chargers and Colts face off in an intriguing primetime matchup. The Colts are out of the running for the postseason while the Chargers have a ton on the line tonight. I still expect a good effort out of both teams, particularly with Indianapolis playing at home.

In this article, I’ll cover the player props that I believe carry the most value for this Monday Night Football game. You can find further coverage on this game on the Lineups YouTube channel. You can also use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Keenan Allen Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)

Since making his return in Week 11, Keenan Allen is averaging 10.4 targets per game. That’s good for a target share of just under 24% over that span. Allen is one of the best route runners in the NFL, and he’s incredible at finding space between defenders to work himself open for Justin Herbert.

Tonight, Allen faces a defense that will allow him to do just that. The Colts play a ton of Cover 2 zone defense under Gus Bradley, and Allen feasts against zone defense. He has an absurd 93.1% catch rate against zone this year per PFF, and he averages a full yard more per catch against zone versus man defense.

Around 60% of Allen’s snaps have come out of the slot this season, and that makes this a favorable game for him. Slot corner Kenny Moore is out for Indianapolis tonight, and safety Julian Blackmon appears to be likely to slide into the slot. He has allowed a 73.3% catch rate and a 127.1 passer rating in coverage this season.

Zack Moss Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)

Last week, Zack Moss came through with 81 rushing yards on 24 carries in an impressive showing after Jonathan Taylor was hurt early in the game. However, it was an absolutely perfect game script for Moss as the Colts had an absurd 33-0 halftime lead and leaned heavily on the run game as they tried to ice the game in the second half.

Needless to say, we shouldn’t expect a repeat of that game script here, and the Colts are 4-point underdogs against a surging Chargers team. With the likelihood for neutral and negative game scripts throughout, I expect Deon Jackson to be more involved. In addition, Jordan Wilkins was signed to the active roster and will see usage tonight.

The matchup is good in theory with the Chargers entering Week 16 as the second-worst defense in terms of yards per carry allowed, but Moss is a below-average running back running behind a below-average offensive line. With his usage likely not at a high level, I’ll happily fade him tonight.

Michael Pittman Jr. Over 5.5 Receptions (-113 FanDuel)

We played this prop last week with Michael Pittman Jr., and despite a heavily positive game script where the Colts had a big lead throughout most of the game, he finished with ten catches. He saw a whopping 14 targets with a typically low 7.3-yard aDOT. Over the course of the season, his aDOT is just 6.9 yards.

In that short-area role, Pittman Jr. has been leaned upon, especially with the Colts’ offensive line ranking 27th in pressure allowed. He has 6+ catches in four of his last five games and nine of his 13 games this season, good for a 69% hit rate. With close to even money on the juice here, there’s value to be had.

While the Colts will start Nick Foles instead of Matt Ryan tonight, I don’t expect their offensive structure to change dramatically, and Pittman will still be a major focal point. The Chargers are middle of the road in most pass defense metrics, and with the expected negative game script, Pittman should benefit.