Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (1/14/23)
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Get Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars player prop picks & odds for the (1/14/23) matchup.
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Los Angeles Chargers Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks
On Saturday night, two up-and-coming star quarterbacks will make their playoff debuts as Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence face off. With a spread of one point in favor of the Chargers, this game is expected to be a close affair. That makes for a fun environment for player props.
In this article, I’ll break down the top player props to target from this game. As always, be sure to use the Chargers vs. Jaguars player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks in your market. Check out our YouTube channel for full coverage of this and every Wild Card game. Let’s get to work.
Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions (-115 BetMGM)
Since returning to the Chargers’ lineup on November 20, Keenan Allen is averaging 7.5 catches per game with a median of seven receptions. He’s had double-digit targets in four of his last six games and 11.3 per game over that span. With Mike Williams still a DNP as of Wednesday, his target share could be even greater for this playoff game.
The best area to attack the Jaguars’ defense is underneath as they rank dead last in pass DVOA allowed in the short area of the field. Keenan Allen has seen 55.3% of his targets in that area and has an elite 87.2% catch rate in that part of the field, per PFF.
Allen will primarily be matched up with Tre Herndon, who is averaging 44 snaps from the slot over the past five weeks, as Darious Williams has pivoted to more of a full-time boundary corner. Herndon has allowed a 71.1% catch rate and a 122.6 passer rating in coverage, making this a great matchup for Allen.
The Chargers pass the ball at a 64.9% rate, the second-highest in the NFL, and Herbert has a pass attempts prop set at 37.5 for this game. Allen will be the #1 target in the passing game, and I expect him to see double-digit targets.
Trevor Lawrence Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel) and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350 FanDuel)
This isn’t going to be an easy matchup for Trevor Lawrence. The Chargers rank second in EPA per dropback and success rate per dropback allowed since Week 14 as their defense has turned a corner in recent weeks.
It also doesn’t help that an offensive line missing its left tackle will be going up against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, perhaps the best edge rushing tandem in the NFL. The Chargers rank just 23rd in pressure rate this year, but that’s misleading as Bosa only played in five games.
We’ve seen Lawrence have more of a willingness to take off and run in recent weeks, particularly when presented with pressure. In recent matchups against the Jets, Cowboys, Lions, and Chiefs, all of whom rank top ten in pressure rate, Lawrence is averaging 32.5 rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, when he faced the Titans (18th) and Texans (22nd), both below-average pressure units, he went way under this rushing yardage prop. Those defenses gave him more time to hang around in the pocket and didn’t force him to run.
Quarterbacks have consistently been at or over their season average of rushing yards against the Chargers this year. Let’s take a look:
- Russell Wilson had 18 and 23 rushing yards (two matchups), season average was 18.4 yards
- Tua Tagovailoa had 28 rushing yards, season average was 5.3 yards
- Kyler Murray had 56 rushing yards, season average was 38 yards
- Patrick Mahomes had 23 rushing yards, season average was 21 yards
- Jacoby Brissett had 32 rushing yards, season average was 15.2 yards
It’s certainly worth noting that Lawrence only had seven rushing yards against the Chargers earlier this season, but the Jaguars won that game 38-10 and dominated throughout. Joey Bosa missed that game, and his presence alone will make the Chargers’ pass rush a much different beast for Lawrence to deal with.
Travis Etienne Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
I wouldn’t recommend playing both Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence’s rushing props, and I see more value for Lawrence, but it’s worth fleshing out that Etienne could absolutely obliterate this number. Prior to a disappointing Week 18, Etienne had averaged 19.4 touches for 126.3 total yards in his three previous starts.
In two of those starts, Etienne had 100+ rushing yards, and he absolutely has that kind of upside here. Etienne is a home run waiting to happen as his 451 breakaway yards rank third in the NFL per PFF, and he has 16 runs of 15+ yards, tied for the fifth-most this season.
However, I don’t love that the Jaguars rank just 29th in adjusted line yards – that creates a lot of inconsistencies in Etienne’s production. Their best production came running over the left tackle – they ranked fourth in line yards in that area – but now Cam Robinson is out for the year.
I also don’t love that JaMychal Hasty has seen anywhere between 25 and 40% of the team’s snaps over the last month. Some of that is due to Travis Etienne’s habit of leaving games with minor knocks throughout, but Etienne has never profiled as a workhorse back, and the Jaguars won’t overload him with work.
If Etienne hits one big breakaway run, talk of Robinson and Hasty could seem rather silly. However, the downside is real, and this prop will only climb as a very popular public side as we get closer to kickoff. If you like Etienne, his longest rush prop at 17.5 yards is worth consideration as it plays into his boom-or-bust nature.
