Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/13/22)

Get Los Angeles Chargers Vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (11/13/22) matchup

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Los Angeles Chargers Vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks

This Sunday Night Football game carried much more intrigue prior to the season when the Chargers looked like potential Super Bowl contenders, but injuries and poor coaching seem to have derailed their season. The 49ers are coming off their bye week and are 7-point home favorites in primetime.

While the game itself isn’t projected to be quite as close as originally expected, we can still find value in the player props department. In this article, I’ll cover my favorite player props from this Sunday Night Football game. You can use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Austin Ekeler Under 40.5 Receiving Yards

With no Mike Williams or Keenan Allen this week, you’d expect Austin Ekeler to be heavily involved in the passing game. Ekeler has 7+ catches in three straight games and has averaged 55.6 receiving yards per game over that span. With 60 catches through eight games, Ekeler is currently on pace to break the running back receptions record.

However, this might be the most difficult matchup Ekeler could possibly be facing as the 49ers are elite in pass defense against running backs. Football Outsiders grades them as the second-best defense in terms of DVOA, and they’ve only allowed 30 receiving yards per game to the position, primarily thanks to All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner.

San Francisco has allowed a running back to surpass 40 receiving yards just once all season, and while the targets will certainly be there, Ekeler averages just 6.4 yards per catch. He would theoretically need 6+ catches to surpass this number, and that seems quite high when the Niners allow just 20 pass completions per game.

Justin Herbert Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

I truly believe that Justin Herbert is a top five talent at the quarterback position, but he simply isn’t being put in a position to succeed. Between poor offensive game planning and coaching and an injured offensive line and receiving corps, there isn’t a strong support system in place for him right now.

Outside of their game against Patrick Mahomes, the Niners have allowed just 183.9 passing yards per game, and only two quarterbacks have beaten their passing yardage prop against them all season. Meanwhile, Herbert has been under this yardage number in three of his last four games. That includes 245 passing yards last week against the Falcons who rank 29th in pass defense DVOA.

The one concern with this prop would be the potential for garbage time production given the 49ers being seven-point favorites, but I don’t feel confident that Herbert has the necessary weapons to take advantage. The 49ers rank fifth in pressure rate while blitzing at a below-average rate, so Herbert won’t have time in the pocket, either.

Christian McCaffrey Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)

There are a handful of player props this week where BetMGM has a significantly better line than other books, and that illustrates the absolute necessity of line shopping in betting on player props. This prop is no different as CMC’s rushing yardage prop is juiced or listed at a higher number elsewhere across the board.

CMC got 26 touches in the game against the Rams prior to the team’s bye week, and while I don’t expect him to see that level of workload moving forward, it was telling that San Francisco traded away Jeff Wilson at the deadline. Elijah Mitchell was designated to return from Injured Reserve, but I feel confident that McCaffrey will see at least 15 carries against the Chargers.

From there, it’s a simple calculation. The Chargers attempted to fix their run defense over the offseason, but they still surrender 5.7 yards per carry, the most in the NFL. If CMC gets 15 carries and averages 5.7 yards a pop, he’d easily surpass this number. That’s frankly at the low end of the spectrum, as well, given his talent and the 49ers’ elite blocking scheme.