Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Player Props & Picks (12/25/22)

Get Los Angeles Lakers Vs. Dallas Mavericks player prop picks & odds for the (12/25/22) matchup

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Prop Picks

The Lakers-Mavericks game is the second matchup of the Christmas slate, and the preview breaking down game line predictions can be found here. Let’s dive into best bets for player props! Will LeBron dominate the game? Which role player hits their threes?

Christian Wood Over 1.5 Threes (-111 FD)

With Luka and Dinwiddie dominating usage, Wood will receive plenty of spot up looks. In twelve December games, Wood is averaging 1.8 3PM and 5.0 3PA (36.7%). Wood also has a great matchup against Thomas Bryant, who doesn’t have the mobility to guard him out on the perimeter. The Mavericks likely ask Wood to pop instead of roll after setting the screen, and Bryant’s need to help defend the ball handler should leave Wood open looks. In addition, the Lakers as a whole are not elite at defending spot up opportunities. The volume will be there for two 3PM, but it’s just a matter of Wood converting the great looks Luka will provide.

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Austin Reaves Over 10.5 Points (-110 DK)

Because Davis is injured, Reaves’ opportunities have significantly increased. He’s one of their better scorers on the roster, and he plays with two elite playmakers in LeBron and Westbrook. Over the last three games, Reaves has scored 20, 12, and 16 points. He’s also a good three-point shooter, which makes it easier to score in bunches and hit overs. While Dallas’ starting lineup isn’t an easy matchup, Reaves can target a soft Mavericks bench perimeter defense. The Lakers are also 1st in pace, and Reaves thrives as a transition scorer. Look for Reaves to rack up quick points and transition and safely clear this total by the start of the 4th quarter.

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LeBron James Over 29.5 Points (-125 DK)

Finney-Smith and Bullock are good wing defenders, but LeBron is still LeBron despite his age. The 37-year-old is averaging 27.4 PPG, and he’s hit 30+ points in his last 6 games. Given Davis’ injury, LeBron’s volume will be enormous, and it should be enough to hit the over regardless of whether he’s hyper-efficient or not. Much like Reaves, the incredible pace should inflate his scoring slightly. Dallas is also 19th in opponent free throw rate, so LeBron likely draws plenty of free throws, which have a high expected points per possession. It also may be irrelevant, but there is a certain atmosphere around LeBron where he tends to put on a show during special events, such as Christmas games.

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Luka Doncic Over 50.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-106 FD)

Luka’s absurd usage, shot making, size and playmaking mean he’s on triple-double watch every night, and he’s coming off a 68 PRA performance against the Rockets. Los Angeles plays at the fastest pace in the league, and they don’t own knockdown shooters. There should be plenty of rebound opportunities, and Christian Wood isn’t a dominant rebounder. As a result, I expect a ton of Luka rebounds. Given he faces undersized guards and is surrounded with shooters, I also project Luka to rack up points and assists with ease. It’s certainly a large line, but Luka has the tools to hit the over.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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