Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens (11/24/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 2-7
All Time Results: 71-68-1, +9.27 Units

Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Under 46.5 – 1 Unit

The Los Angeles Rams have problems on the offensive line.  For two straight seasons, Sean McVay wondered at his luck that his 5 starting Offensive Lineman played every single game all the way into the playoffs.  The TV broadcasters announced this fact the moment the Rams O-line’s health reached its nadir.  Since Rams starting Center, Brian Allen went down in Pittsburgh, LA has scored 20 points over 7 quarters.

They will be facing a Ravens defense that has looked rejuvenized since their acquisition of Marcus Peters.  CB Jimmy Smith has also made his presence known since coming back from injury.  I don’t expect the Rams to get much more than 21 points against any legitimate defense at the moment.  Against the Ravens, I think Rams Under 21.5 is a great bet.

baltimore ravensThe Ravens have been, slightly more successful on offense, scoring – you know – 127 points over their last 12 quarters, including trouncing two of their nearest AFC competitors in the Patriots & Texans.  That said, welcome to the NFC.  Aaron Donald will be by far the best defensive athlete they’ve seen since Myles Garret & the Brown beat them by two touchdowns in Baltimore.  Donald will get pressure up the middle, forcing MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson to the outside where it will be harder for him to gain chunk yardage with his legs among faster players.  What’s more – Donald’s unique brand of rushing makes him elite not only at pressuring the quarterback but also penetrating to blow up running plays.  The Ravens have the best rushing attack in the league, but I think the Rams will be ready for it.

While the Ravens’ revolution might post a 50-burger on a lesser team, I think Baltimore’s team total landing Under 25 is a great bet on Sunday against the Rams.

Combine the two and I think we have an excellent wager on the game going Under 46.5.  Prediction: Ravens 21, Rams 20.

 

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4-Team, 7 Point Teaser (+215): Los Angeles Rams +10.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers +10.5 @ San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers – .25 Units

Let’s compare two very different Quarterbacks.  These two QBs currently lead the all-time charts in terms if Career Win Percentage.

Player A – 20 NFL Starts, 17 Wins (85%), 5 4QTR Comebacks, 5 Game-Winning Drives

Player B – 17 NFL Stars, 14 Wins (83%), 1 4QTR Comeback, 2 Game-Winning Drives

Take a second, if you don’t have it.

Player A is Jimmy Garropolo and Player B is Lamar Jackson.  Which player would you describe as a clutch?

seattle seahawksThe answer to me is easy: Russell Wilson.

20 games is not a sample size to make any real consideration.  Not that Lamar Jackson or Jimmy G’s success means nothing – I think 99% of people made a mistake discounting Tom Brady’s ability to win a high percentage of his games the moment he stepped in the league.  It means a lot.  But I don’t give either of these guys the type of respect I do to a Russell Wilson, an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees.  Yes, Wilson won 10+ games with a 70+ QBR as a rookie in 2012. But he did more than that.  He came back the next year and did it again.  And again.

Experience, I think, is the number one tool humans use to stay calm.  If the Saints are down 14 against Kyle Allen and the Panthers.  I’m not that worried about this bet.  Because I know: Brees is not that worried about a losing game.  He’ll just keep balling.  There is no guarantee that he will be able to spur a Saints comeback, of course.  But whether he does or he doesn’t I am confident he won’t be thrown by the moment.

I like each of these Hall of Fame QBs to keep it close on Sunday.  Plus, Jared Goff.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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