Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)
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Get Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/2022) matchup
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Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks
After missing last week’s game with a concussion, Matthew Stafford is expected to return this week when the Rams (3-6) visit the New Orleans Saints (3-7). Unfortunately for Stafford, his favorite target Cooper Kupp is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. Which pass catchers will step up to fill Kupp’s gargantuan shoes, and how will Stafford fare in Kupp’s absence? Meanwhile, the Saints are sticking with Andy Dalton under center despite his recent struggles and the availability of Jameis Winston.
The Saints are 3-point favorites in this game, which has the lowest over/under on the week 11 slate at 38.5 Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Rams vs. Saints matchup.
Chris Olave over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olave is coming off the worst game of his rookie season so far. He had just three catches on five targets for 40 yards last week against the Steelers. Sportsbooks have reacted by setting Olave’s line this week at the lowest it’s been since week three. Seems like a bit of an overreaction to me.
Perhaps that line has less to do with last week and more to do with the matchup with Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey remains one of the top cover corners in the league, though he is allowing the highest passer rating when targeted in his career so far this season (89.9). The matchup is definitely a tough one, but it doesn’t scare me off from betting on Olave’s consistent volume and production this year.
The Ohio State product has gone over 51.5 receiving yards in seven of the nine games he has played this year and is averaging 73.1 yards per game. He is leading Saints wide receivers in targets by a wide margin with 77 and a 22.5% target share. The next closest wide receiver, Marquez Callaway, has 29 targets (8.5%).
The Saints are going to have to throw the ball in this game to attack the Rams’ defense, which ranks 4th against the run in DVOA but just 21st against the pass. When Dalton throws it, more often than not he’s going to be looking at Olave.
Alvin Kamara under 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
Speaking of that tough Rams run defense, I am fading Alvin Kamara on the ground this week. Kamara has cleared 65 rushing yards just twice this season and is averaging 58.6 rushing yards per game. He has seemingly disappeared from the offense over the last two weeks, with just 17 carries and 23 total touches.
If the Saints are going to get Kamara more involved in the offense this week, it’s more likely to be through the passing game. The Rams are allowing the 11th-most receiving yards to opposing running backs per game this season. Even if he does see more volume through the ground game, against this tough Rams defense it’s unlikely to be enough for Kamara to exceed 65 rushing yards.
Tyler Higbee under 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
Higbee might be a popular choice to absorb some of the offensive production made available by the absence of Cooper Kupp, but that is not going to happen this week. The Saints are one of the best defenses in the league at defending tight ends. They are allowing just 3.6 catches and 31.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fifth-lowest and second-lowest in the league, respectively.
Higbee might be coming off one of his best games of the season last week against the Cardinals, catching all eight of his targets for 73 yards. However, he did that against the worst defense in the league at defending tight ends (Arizona allows a league-high 7.5 receptions and 77.8 receiving yards per game to the position). He also did it with a different quarterback, John Wolford, and backup quarterbacks tend to like throwing to big, reliable targets like tight ends. Stafford prefers to sling it around the field to his wide receivers.
Despite the nice game last week, Higbee is averaging just 23.75 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks. Rather than looking for Higbee, expect Stafford to increase the targets for wide receivers Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek in Kupp’s absence. Take the under on Higbee this week.
