Get Rams Vs. 49ers player prop picks & odds for the Monday Night Football matchup on (10/3/22).
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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
On Monday Night Football, a rivalry is renewed between the Rams and the 49ers. The last time we saw these teams meet was in the NFC Championship game prior to Los Angeles winning the Super Bowl. The 49ers will have some lingering anger after that loss, but they will also be without Trent Williams, perhaps the best offensive lineman in football, on Monday. Meanwhile, the Rams have a rejuvenated run defense that can give the Niners’ ground game all sorts of problems. With those new factors in mind, let’s explore some player prop options on Monday night.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100 BetMGM)
You already knew this was going to be on my list. Jimmy Garoppolo was a turnover machine last year as he threw for seven picks in his last five games of the season. Last week, he had one pick against the Broncos, but that didn’t tell the full story. Jimmy G was under constant fire against Denver, and when he was pressured, he had a massive 16.7% turnover-worthy play rate per PFF.
The 49ers’ offensive line hasn’t been the same to start this season as it was last year. They rank just 23rd in adjusted sack rate allowed per Football Outsiders after finishing the 2021 regular season ranked 17th in that respect. The interior of the offensive line has struggled to adapt to the losses of Alex Mack and Laken Tomlinson, two of their top-four graded pass-blockers last season per PFF.
Now, San Francisco will also be without Trent Williams, who is an excellent pass protector and was PFF’s top-graded run-blocker in the NFL last season. The 49ers will call upon Colton McKivitz to start in Williams’ place, who incidentally started in Week 18 against the Rams last year. He had a rough day, being responsible for four pressures and two sacks. Without Williams, the 49ers will have a tough time keeping Jimmy G upright.
Last season, Garoppolo’s 9.8% turnover-worthy play rate under pressure ranked second among all QBs with 70+ dropbacks under pressure. In two games without Williams last year, Garoppolo had six turnover-worthy plays and four interceptions. I’m expecting him to be under pressure on Monday night, and I’ll happily bet on the Rams’ secondary capitalizing when he does make those turnover-worthy plays.
Deebo Samuel Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
With the 49ers’ diminished offensive line, I anticipate them running into some problems when they try to run against the Rams. Los Angeles ranks first in EPA against the run and first in PFF’s run defense grades this year, and future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner has been a massive addition in that respect. Of course, the Rams maintain an elite defensive line centered around Aaron Donald.
Samuel has hit the over on his rushing total in two of three games this season, but he only took five carries for six yards last week as he faced a disciplined Broncos defense. In Week 1 and 2, he needed two long runs to hit the over. That won’t happen against the Rams’ disciplined defense that ranks 13th in PFF’s tackling grades this season.
In the NFC Championship game against the Rams, Samuel took seven carries for just 27 yards, and that was with Trent Williams in the lineup. Without Williams on an already diminished offensive line, it will be a tall order for Samuel to bust a long run against this high-level run defense. This isn’t necessarily the most fun prop out there, but we’re here to find value, and I see significant value betting against Samuel in this spot.
Cooper Kupp Over 8.5 Receptions
Cooper Kupp must be the most consistently difficult player for sportsbooks to price as he is capable of going off for 11 catches on any given week, as he did in two of his last three games against the 49ers. The reigning triple crown wide receiver has averaged 9.3 receptions per game this year, and it’s obvious that his connection with Matthew Stafford remains as strong as any QB-WR duo in the league.
While I wrote extensively about the 49ers’ offensive line issues, the Rams have some problems upfront they need to address. Andrew Whitworth’s retirement was significant, and the Rams rank 25th in adjusted sack rate to this point. However, they’ve allowed the tenth-lowest pressure rate, primarily due to Stafford’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly in Sean McVay’s system.
The 49ers lost slot corner K’Waun Williams in free agency, and their replacements have been two recent fifth-round picks Deommodore Lenoir and Samuel Womack. They have combined to allow nine catches for 55 yards in the slot so far, and they’ve both allowed above-average passer ratings in coverage. Kupp should be able to take advantage of this matchup, and with Nick Bosa and friends bearing down on Stafford, he’ll be looking Kupp’s way often in this game.