Last Week: 0-3
All Time Results: 78-76-1, +8.7 Units
Los Angeles Rams +100 vs. Seattle Seahawks-.5 Units
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks -.5 Units
Isn’t it always the case, that just when you begin to burry a team or a coach, they always seem to bounce back and surprise to the upside? Well, the short answer is no. Just as often as a franchise rises like a phoenix, there is the Jim Morra’s Falcons of the world fading into that good night. The reason it feels like good teams always turn it around is confirmation bias. Coaches that are still in the league by definition have cleared the latest bar to justify their employment.
All that said, I’m buying low on Sean McVay and these Rams. While I never bought into the Boy-Genius moniker, McVay’s ability last week to rally his troops after one of the worst Monday Night Football losses in history was truly remarkable. The Rams not only won – they dominated vs. now the hapless looking Arizona Cardinals, winning the yardage battle to the tune of 400+ yards. McVay improved his already stellar road record to 18-5 Straight-Up (78%) and 14-9 ATS (61%).
Winning on the road in the NFL has a lot to do with getting the details right. All the circumstantial noise that can interfere with the team’s concentration must be addressed and mollified for the team to peak at kickoff. McVay is not only a preeminent football mind, but he is also a world-class leader of men.
Despite their playoff chances dwindling at close to 25%, the Rams have not given up on this season. And for good reason: a win on Sunday Night Football vs the Seahawks makes their odds at getting into the dance close to a coin flip.
Baltimore Ravens To Win Super Bowl +275 – 1 Unit
When the Ravens roasted the Rams in the Collesium to the tune of 45 to 6, many took more from the game that the Rams were done than that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were historically great. Indeed, LA did seem dead in the water.
But perhaps the more important takeaway is that no team has exceeded expectations over a 6-week span more than these Baltimore Ravens. They are redefining football right in front of our very eyes.
Although they didn’t boast quite as impressive result this past week – their grind out a win at home against the 49ers showed true grit.
Moreover, it exemplified their perennial excellence on Special Teams. Not only did Justin Tucker knock in an amazing 50-yard game-winning field goal to ice the contest – Tucker is now a ridiculous 38 for his last 38 4th quarter field goals – the 20-30 extra yards they gained through their excellent work in the punt game turned a razor edge contest in their favor.
538’s predictive model gives the Ravens a 30% chance to win the Super Bowl. In order for this to be a profitable wager, we need the Ravens to end up the champion about 27% of the time. Funny how humans seem so much more prone to falling victim to the hype of the new shiny thing – but a computer model, only tracking the statistics and results, finds the Ravens’ emergence even more impressive than the Oddsmakers do. I think we got a solid wager here.
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