On Saturday (9/30/23), LSU faces Ole Miss in an SEC matchup. Get LSU Vs. Ole Miss predictions and best bets below as our best bet is over 66.5 points.
LSU Vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Best Bet
Since the disappointing Week 1 loss to Florida State, LSU’s offense has been humming. They’ve averaged 42.8 points per game, the 10th-best mark in the country, and they rank sixth in offensive EPA per play. Jayden Daniels has been the lynchpin of one of the most efficient offenses in the country as he’s enjoying a career year.
Daniels was an electric runner and solid passer last year, but he’s become an elite passer this season. He threw for under 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns last year – so far he has 1,295 passing yards and 12 touchdowns this season. His yards per attempt rate is up from 7.5 to 10.3, which is tied for the ninth-best mark in the Power Five.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, is coming off a very disappointing offensive performance against Alabama where they managed to score just ten points. However, things get much easier this week against an LSU defense that has struggled mightily. The Tigers rank 124th in EPA per play allowed and are allowing a 50% third down conversion rate, the 14th-highest in the country.
Despite Arkansas missing its leading rusher Raheim Sanders and quarterback K.J. Jefferson struggling to find consistency with his current crop of wide receivers, Arkansas had a stellar 96th percentile success rate last week on their way to 31 points. There’s something seriously wrong with the LSU defense.
Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart should be able to take advantage of the coverage busts LSU keeps experiencing while running back Quinshon Judkins could be set for a breakout game against an LSU run defense that ranks 106th in tackling per PFF. Judkins has had a quiet start to the year, but he’s due for a big game.
The Ole Miss defense has performed much better than LSU’s this year, but they haven’t played anyone like Daniels, and they allowed Alabama’s Jalen Milroe to complete 81% of his passes with three big-time throws last week. Daniels, who leads the Power Five with a 72.2% completion rate on deep ball throws, should torch the Ole Miss secondary.
I expect a very high-scoring game between these two SEC rivals, and while the total has crept up throughout the week, I still don’t think it’s set high enough. These teams should have no problem scoring 30+ points and I like the over in this game.
LSU Vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Best Bet: Over 66.5 Points
LSU Vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds
The spread for this game between LSU and Ole Miss is set at -2.5 in favor of the road Tigers. It’s worth noting that LSU is 6-1 in their last seven games against Ole Miss, but the books aren’t willing to spot them more than a field goal on the spread. The total for this game has been rising throughout the week and currently sits at 66.5.
LSU Vs. Ole Miss Key Matchups
In what I’m expecting to be a very high-scoring game, there are some fascinating matchups to digest. Let’s take a look at some of the key matchups that could decide the winner of this SEC battle.
Malik Nabers Vs. Ole Miss Secondary
While perhaps not quite ‘Wide Receiver U,” LSU has pumped out several NFL wide receivers in recent years. Malik Nabers is the next in line, and he already has 523 yards and five touchdowns through four games this season. Two weeks ago, Nabers had his signature game with 239 yards and two scores against Mississippi State.
Ole Miss will be hard pressed to contain Nabers this week, and LSU will line him up all over the formation. Cornerback Zamari Walton, a transfer from Georgia Tech, has helped bolster the Rebels’ pass defense, but he and fellow starting corner Deantre Prince have by far their toughest test to date in this game.
Slot fade to Malik Nabers. Easy pic.twitter.com/F0rTVJvpeB
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 24, 2023
Quinshon Judkins Vs. LSU’s Run Defense
Quinshon Judkins was a true freshman last season and he broke the Rebels’ single-season rushing record with 1,567 yards. He also scored 17 touchdowns on his way to a First Team All SEC nod. It’s been a quiet start to the season for him with just 201 yards through four games, but he could be in for a breakout game against the LSU run defense.
LSU’s run defense has been a major weakness this year as they rank outside the top 100 in EPA per play and success rate allowed on the ground. Linebacker Omar Speights, a transfer from Oregon State where he finished First Team All Pac 12 last year, has been out for the last two games and could return, but he’s not enough on his own to turn the tide for this struggling run defense.
Quinshon Judkins' freshman stats:
🔴 1,567 Rush Yds
🔵 17 Total TD
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) July 8, 2023