Get Marquez Valdes-Scantling player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Player Prop Picks
In the AFC Championship game, Marquez Valdes-Scantling put forth a heroic effort with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman all suffering injuries. MVS finished the game with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown and went over 100 yards for just the second time with the Chiefs.
In this article, I’ll take a look at some of the MVS props available. Don’t forget to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and make sure you’re getting the best available value. Also, check out the rest of our site and YouTube channel for more player prop content. Let’s get to work.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over/Under 34.5 Yards
While MVS had 116 yards last week, he’s been very inconsistent in terms of his production. It isn’t his fault – it’s simply a product of the way the Chiefs’ offense is constructed where the opposing defense never knows which receiver will be the main guy on any given day.
That unpredictability has shown up in MVS’s receiving yardage this year. He has under 30 receiving yards ten of his 19 games (53%) and over 40 in the remaining nine (47%). In addition, MVS has six games with 60+ receiving yards this year, including last week’s game.
The Chiefs appear to be trending towards having a nearly full complement of wide receivers for the Super Bowl with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney now off the injury report. That means MVS will have a reduced role in this game, and that’s enough for me to lean towards the under on his receiving yardage prop.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over/Under 2.5 Receptions
Along with Valdes-Scantling’s yardage comes a fascinating split on his receptions this season. He has 3+ catches in ten of his 19 games (53%) and two or fewer in nine (47%). In addition, he has one or no catches in six of his 19 games (31%). There have only been three times all year where he’s gone over on this prop in back to back games.
In the AFC Championship, MVS played 41.5% of his snaps out of the slot and did most of his damage against the Bengals’ slot corner Mike Hilton. MVS registered five catches on five targets for 109 yards against Hilton, which was almost all of his production.
With Smith-Schuster, Toney, and Hardman trending towards being healthy, it’s unlikely MVS plays the same amount from the slot. When he’s on the outside, he’ll be facing one of the more talented cornerback tandems in the league in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. I’d lean towards those two limiting MVS to two or fewer catches.
The Verdict: Lean Under 2.5 Receptions
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Anytime Touchdown Scorer
I already wrote about why I’d lean towards fading Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this game, so it shouldn’t be overly surprising that I don’t see him scoring a touchdown. While I do think Patrick Mahomes has multiple passing touchdowns in this game, there’s a large amount of players who those touchdowns could go to.
Valdes-Scantling has ten red-zone targets this season, which is tied with Mecole Hardman for fourth on the team. Travis Kelce (28), JuJu Smith-Schuster (15), and Jerick McKinnon (15) all rank ahead of him.
MVS didn’t score in the regular season, but he has a touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ playoff games. I believe he’ll regress to where he has been for most of the season, and while you’re getting pretty good odds here at +200 or better, I still wouldn’t bet on MVS to score in the Super Bowl.
The Verdict: Lean No
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