2025 Memorial Tournament Odds & Betting Preview: Early Picks, Including Xander Schauffele
The game’s best are all headed to Jack’s Place again, this time at the famed Muirfield Village. The Memorial Tournament was synonymous with Memorial Day weekend up until this year, but has now been pushed a week later due to some recent scheduling reorganization. Overall, the PGA Tour has made a concerted effort in 2025 to build momentum leading up to and/or following each major championship, which coincides with the Memorial Tournament odds board.
This event is one of the most storied non-majors on the Tour schedule. It dates back to 1976 and sits upon one of the most breathtaking backdrops in golf outside of Augusta National. Muirfield Village sternly tests golfers and has produced a diverse cast of winners over the past decade. More recently, we’ve seen the cream start to rise to the top here, with winning scores in the low teens under par.
We’ll review the key facts and information about Muirfield Village before you bet the Memorial Tournament odds at the best sports betting sites.
2025 Memorial Tournament Betting Odds
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The Field At A Glance
The seventh of eight events of the 2025 season, a concentrated field of all of the PGA Tour’s best will congregate at Jack’s place for an ideal week of prep for Oakmont, which waits in the balance two weeks from now to host the 2025 U.S. Open. As per usual for the Signature Events in 2025, a reduced field of just 72 players will tee it up in Dublin, Ohio, with all players within 10 strokes of the leader advancing through the cut to play the weekend.
All eligible PGA Tour players inside the OWGR top-30 will be at Muirfield Village this week, with the exception of Rory McIlroy, who appears to be doing some soul-searching after dodging the media in his hapless T47 showing at Quail Hollow. McIlroy aside, 2022 champion Billy Horshel (recovering from hip surgery) is the only other OWGR top-40 player who is eligible and will not be teeing it up at Muirfield Village this week.
Scottie Scheffler will headline once more as the defending champion of this event, narrowly edging past Collin Morikawa here in 2024. With no McIlroy in the field, Scheffler figures to be a considerable favorite given his elite course history and red-hot form at the moment. In the next tier, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Ludvig Aberg will represent the top favorites this week.
In addition to Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, and Justin Rose represent the list of past champions in the field.
Introduction To Murfield Village
Firm, fast, and tight Bentgrass greens signify this course, which is a trend that will carry over from last week’s PGA Tour venue, Colonial CC. Players must be precise with their approaches and hit their landing areas in order to hold these greens. That consequently puts an emphasis on playing from the fairway. Muirfield Village features some of the most penal rough on TOUR. It’s nearly impossible to hold these tight greens from the rough, so strength around the greens will be a must for players to contend.
But the more things seem to change, the more they stay the same. That’s the name of the game at Muirfield Village, as the last five years have produced dramatically different playing conditions. Yet, they still produced remarkably similar leaderboards.
The 2019 conditions took place in Muirfield Village’s business-as-usual setup at 7,392 yards. Patrick Cantlay made the course look easy, winning at -19. But only eight players reached double digits under par.
In 2020, due to COVID scheduling weirdness, Muirfield Village hosted back-to-back events in July. First, at the Workday Charity Open, Collin Morikawa defeated Justin Thomas in a playoff at -19. For the Workday, the staff grew the greens out to play slower and more receptive than what we’d usually see at the Memorial.
The greens at the Memorial had completely changed the following week. They were extremely firm and fast, nearly impossible to hold with any long iron approach. Jon Rahm dominated, winning by three strokes at -9 despite a questionable two-stroke penalty assessed after the Sunday round. The conditions on Sunday produced the most difficult scoring of any non-major since 2015, with an average of 78. Only Matt Fitzpatrick recorded a round in the 60s.
Last year produced yet another single-digit-under-par winner, with Scheffler prevailing at -8, and just 11 players carding scores under par for the tournament.
An Extensive Renovation
As the 2020 Memorial concluded, staff immediately began an extensive renovation. By 2021, Muirfield Village played a full 100 yards longer at 7,543. It featured brand new greens complexes, among other modifications. Rahm tallied -18 through three rounds, six strokes clear of the field and in position to coast to victory. Then, he withdrew due to a positive COVID test. Instead, Cantlay emerged victorious over Morikawa in a playoff at -13.
Over the last three years, the winning mark has fallen between -13 and -7. So, after the course overhaul, the ensuing leaderboards post-renovations have maintained a consistent look and feel.
The Setup
One of the most visually stunning properties on the PGA Tour schedule, Muirfield Village’s perfectly manicured layout is characterized by its length, generous fairways, long and penal rough, and firm and fast Bentgrass greens.
After renovations, Muirfield Village now stands 100 yards longer, playing as a 7,571-yard par 72. Unique to Muirfield Village compared to most other PGA Tour tracks, the four par 5s are the only holes with a scoring average below par. That makes Par-5 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance crucial to contending this week.
The Memorial Tournament has produced some of the largest outliers between winning scores and median scoring over recent years. Despite 2.5 winning scores over the last five years pushing beyond -15 (half credit for Rahm), the median four-day score has fallen under par just once over the same span. Credit that to the unpredictable weather conditions in Dublin.
Course History & Comps
Memorial has produced an eclectic cast of champs. For every elite winner (Scheffler, Hovland, Cantlay, Rahm, DeChambeau), we’ve also had some inexplicable ones (McGirt, Lingmerth, Dufner). Looking further back, elites have dominated. Tiger Woods has won five times. Jack Nicklaus, Hale Irwin, and Tom Watson have also won multiple times. That group features plenty of variety, but the trend suggests those who can consistently find the fairway for four days will find the most success.
A recent adjustment of the tee boxes back to beyond 7,500 yards should give the course even more of a major feel and start to weed out some of the more random players. I’ll look for a tighter card of favorites this week, as I would at an actual major.
Looking at the Course History, 13 players have had multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Sahith Theegala, and Max Homa.
Ten players have avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Scheffler, Kim, Schauffele, Finau, Hovland, Theegala, Matt Kuchar, Sam Burns, Adam Scott, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
The top 10 in terms of overall course history at Muirfield Village are Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Max Homa, and Ludvig Aberg.
Patrick Cantlay
When it comes to performance at Muirfield Village, there is Patrick Cantlay who stands head and shoulders above the rest after Jon Rahm’s departure from the PGA Tour.
Over eight career appearances, Cantlay has delivered seven top-35 finishes with four top-4s and two wins. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in all eight appearances and has always been at his best putting on fast Bentgrass greens.
Course Comps
As a long, challenging par 72 with penal rough and fast Bentgrass greens where the par 5s offer the only respite, Muirfield Village offers several comparable venues for projecting success.
Torrey Pines and Bay Hill rate as the most obvious and sensible comps. They are each top-tier, non-major events that annually host deep, strong fields. Each measures over 7,400 yards and features thick, penal rough around both the fairways and greens. Rahm, Scheffler, McIlroy, and Scott each have consistently strong results across the three courses to further that point.
Beyond those obvious comps, an interesting overlap exists with TPC Potomac leaderboards. Kyle Stanley, Ryan Armour, and David Lingmerth stand out as names we would not expect to see at the top of the leaderboard but who have found repeated success at both courses. Francesco Molinari and Max Homa join Stanley as winners at TPC Potomac. Each has posted a T10 finish at the Memorial. Both courses feature penal rough and long-term exposure to difficult, windy conditions. That emphasizes positioning off the tee and scrambling on Bentgrass greens.
Three weeks ago, I looked closely at Muirfield Village’s performance as the top comp course to Quail Hollow Club for the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Si Woo Kim, and Denny McCarthy all supported that correlated trend well (each finishing in the top 10), so I’ll take a close look at performance at the 2025 PGA Championship when building out my player pool for the Memorial this week.
More tertiary comparisons exist to Caves Valley, another massive property with thick, rough, and fast Bentgrass greens. I expect scoring to be about half of what we saw at the 2021 BMW Championship, however. Olympia Fields is another recent BMW Championship venue on similar agronomy, which features Rahm as an overlapping champion.
As this is an elevated field, it’s fair to pull in performances at recent major venues that share similar characteristics. In addition to Quail Hollow, Valhalla, Oak Hill, Bethpage Black, TPC Harding Park, and Augusta National stand out as the top comps among major venues over the last five years. Though Augusta lacks the element of penal rough, it rewards patience, conservative approach shots, and creative shot shaping and places a premium on par-5 scoring.
Combine performance across this list and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Sungjae Im, Ludvig Aberg, and Tommy Fleetwood.
Key Stats To Consider
- Recent Form (SG: T2G)
- SG: APP
- SG: OTT / Driving Distance
- Par-5 Scoring / Par 5: 550-600
- Par 4: 450-500
- Prox: 175+
- Good Drives Gained (In Long Rough)
- SG: ARG (Fast Greens, Long Rough) / Scrambling Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Course & Comp Course History
Looking at the off-the-tee specifically, history has shown that driving distance matters more than driving accuracy. Players who recklessly spray driver into the rough will struggle to generate scoring opportunities, though. Although this can be described as a second-shot course with generously wide fairways, I’m still looking for players above average in SG: OTT and Driving Distance.
Expected pristine conditions should swing the pendulum towards a premium on approach and a lower winning score below par than we’ve seen over recent years. Strong iron players will have more opportunities to hold these greens. The top 10 in SG: APP entering this week are Sepp Straka, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Aaron Rai, Daniel Berger, and Xander Schauffele.
In 2024, 51% of approach shots came from beyond 175 yards. Honing in more specifically on the top long-iron players in this week’s field, we find Scottie Scheffler, Daniel Berger, Ryan Gerard, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Yu, Sepp Straka, Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim, and Michael Kim.
If we continue to see the par 5s present the only scoring opportunities on this course, then Par-5 Scoring will play a premium. Each falls in the 550-600-yard range. With some designed not to be reached in two, they’ll play differently from your TOUR average in that range. Par-5 Scoring provides a broader picture of the players best equipped to capitalize. That top-10 list includes Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Yu, Davis Thompson, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Michael Kim, and Andrew Novak.
If we narrow the list down to above-average players in terms of SG: APP, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Driving Distance and Par-5 Scoring, then five remain: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Davis Thompson, and Ryan Fox.
Correlation
Looking at the correlation charts this week, we see many of the same characteristics to TOUR average, with a notable increase in the importance of Par-5 Scoring and a sizable decrease in the importance of Par-3 Scoring. This makes sense considering all of the scoring on the par 5s. The par 3s are difficult enough to take a birdie out of play for a majority of the field.
SG: APP rates at notably at more of a premium. While outside the top 10, Driving Distance makes a major jump in importance, going from a bottom-10 stat on average to a top-20 at Muirfield Village.
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SH: TOT at Muirfield Village
Ten players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, and Ryan Fox.
Player Spotlight: Xander Schauffele ()
Two weeks from now, you may find me back in this exact same spot touting Xander as my pick to win the U.S. Open at Oakmont. That conviction, however, is contingent on seeing Xander put it all together four rounds in 2025 first, as he continues to steadily improve week-over-week since the rib injury that sidelined him for the first three months of the year.
Muirfield Village is an ideal venue for the two-time 2024 Major winner to flex his strengths, as his elite driving distance, approach play, and scrambling around fast Bentgrass greens have all led to repeatable success at this event. Though not quite a contending factor over the years at the Memorial, Xander has finished top-25 here in each of his last six appearances, including a career-best T8 showing this time last year.
With five consecutive top-30 finishes leading into this week, the data would suggest it’s not his health, but rather competitive rust that has kept Xander from contending on Sundays this year. Ranking top-5 in Driving Distance over the last 20 rounds, Xander’s power is back and better than ever, and he’s one of a select few I trust to go toe-to-toe with Scheffler down the stretch come Sunday.
Memorial Tournament Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 Memorial Tournament odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tier 1
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Tier 2
Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas
Sepp Straka
Shane Lowry
Tier 3
Daniel Berger
Hideki Matsuyama
Si Woo Kim
Tony Finau
Tier 4
Byeong Hun An
Keegan Bradley
Denny McCarthy
Tier 5
Davis Thompson
Kevin Yu
Andrew Novak
Michael Kim
Memorial Tournament Betting Model & Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History and SG: APP first and foremost, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: T2G (L16), Par-5 Scoring, Prox 175+, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Driving Distance and P4: 450-500, and SG: P (L36, Bent).
To little surprise, Scottie Scheffler emerges in the No. 1 spot of my model this week. He will be in a class of his own when the odds release on Monday, as the defending champion looks to build on yet another hot streak.
After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Keegan Bradley, Daniel Berger, and Xander Schauffele. Hardly any surprises there in a week where the best all-around players should shine.
When 2025 Memorial Tournament odds open Monday, I’ll look to build a tight card around Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry, and Si Woo Kim, depending where odds ultimately fall.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the Memorial Tournament odds board!
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