Dolphins Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Dolphins Odds to Win Super Bowl: +8000
Dolphins Win Total: 6
Dolphins Odds to Win Division: +750
Dolphins Odds to Win Conference: +4000
Dolphins Odds Analysis
Considering the trades and moves made by the front office both before and during the 2019-20 season, the Dolphins might have been one of the NFL’s biggest overachievers last year. “Tank for Tua” became a hashtag, but Miami still rallied around head coach Brian Flores and won five games, including a Week 17 stunner at New England. While a rebuild of this magnitude is rarely accomplished in a single offseason, better days are ahead in South Beach.
Concerning Dolphins futures betting for 2020-21, the market doesn’t consider the team to be much of a contender. Miami’s Super Bowl LV odds of +8000 at FanDuel Sportsbook are tied with the New York Giants for the 5th longest odds of all 32 NFL teams. Their AFC Championship odds of +4000 are the 3rd longest in the conference. The market does acknowledge that some improvement over last season should be made, with a win total line of 6.
AFC East Betting Analysis
The Dolphins are once again the betting underdogs of the AFC East division. Odds of +750 put them 4th out of the four divisional teams. The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are currently listed as co-favorites at +130 odds. The New York Jets sit just ahead of the Dolphins at +700.
With Tom Brady having left New England in free agency this offseason, the entire division has a different feel to it. Even with Brady gone, you can’t count Bill Belichick out, especially with the defense that the Patriots have. The Buffalo Bills made several improvements in the offseason to what was already a very good football team a year ago. The Jets and Dolphins may be betting longshots, but both teams figure to be much improved compared to last season on the backs of their impressive offseasons.
The schedule won’t be easy for the Dolphins or any of their AFC East cohorts. Playthroughs against the deep AFC and NFC West divisions are particularly daunting. Miami will have a shot to get a leg up on the division with matchups against the Patriots and Bills right out of the gate in Weeks 1 and 2. After a nasty 6-game stretch that pits the Dolphins against only teams from the West divisions, they get the Jets in back-to-back games that sandwich a bye week in between.
Dolphins Offseason and Draft
The Dolphins came into the 2020 offseason with plenty of leverage, in the form of both a large amount of cap space and their slew of draft picks. Brian Flores and GM Chris Grier went to work and the result is a young, talented roster that is loaded with potential.
There was a lot of speculation on draft day as to which route the Dolphins would go when drafting their quarterback of the future. While a lot of reports suggested that there was great concern around Tua Tagovailoa based on his injury history, Miami stuck to their guns and drafted the former Alabama signal-caller. With veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick still on the roster, the Dolphins can afford to give Tagovailoa a full redshirt season if they so choose. Whichever QB is in will benefit from a retooled offensive line that includes free agent signings Ted Karras at center and Ereck Flowers at guard, first-round tackle selection Austin Jackson, and second-round pick Robert Hunt.
After trading Kenyan Drake midway through last season, the Dolphins lacked a true game-changer at the running back position. The team opted to address the need outside of the draft, signing Jordan Howard in free agency, and then trading for Matt Breida as the draft came to a close. Howard and Breida offer an intriguing 1-2 punch out of the backfield.
Wide receiver is the one position in which the Dolphins experienced almost no turnover from last season. DeVante Parker finally showed some of his potential, posting a 1200-yard season, by far the best of his five-year career. Behind him on the depth chart, Preston Williams showed promise before his rookie season was cut short by injury. He and Parker together could prove to be a dynamic pair of wideouts. The Dolphins also resigned slot receiver Albert Wilson and still have veteran Allen Hurns on the roster for depth. Tight end Mike Gesicki is a prime candidate to become a regular staple of the passing game as well.
The defense received the majority of the Dolphins’ attention during the free agency signing period. A lot of new faces will be playing major roles for the Fins when the 2020-21 season kicks off. Among them are linebacker Kyle Van Noy, corner Byron Jones, ends Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah, and safety Clayton Fejedelem. Miami also shored up the defense for the future through the draft. Among the most notable selections were corner Noah Igbinoghene in the first round, defensive lineman Raekwon Davis in the second, and safety Brandon Jones in the third.
-Improved Defense at All Three Levels
-Redone Offensive Line That Includes Depth
-Proven Talent at the Offensive Skill Positions
-Offensive Line is Talented but Unproven
-Lack Pure Pass Rushers
The Dolphins entered the 2020 NFL offseason with a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball. The front office did a tremendous job of pulling the strings in both free agency and the NFL Draft to put the team in a better position to contend this season while also laying the foundation for a successful future.
Unfortunately for Miami, you don’t just flip the switch from a depleted roster to a contender. Rebuilds come with growing pains. Throw in the daunting schedule and it is hard to get overly excited about many Dolphins futures bets. The Super Bowl and AFC Championship are still at least another year away. Even so, I think that the Dolphins may have a higher ceiling than the betting market odds would suggest.
Betting on the Dolphins win total isn’t appealing for two reasons: the even number of 6 and also -135 juice to the over. Even so, that’s probably the best way to back the Dolphins at the betting window this season. Another possible option would be betting yes on Miami to make the playoffs at +410. With so many changes to the roster though, it may be best to just sit back and see how it all unfolds.
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