Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Player Props & Picks (9/29/22)

Get NFL player props picks and odds for the Thursday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals (9/29/22).

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Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks

On Thursday Night Football this week, we have an exhilarating matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals. Cincinnati won the AFC Championship last year while Miami looks like one of the teams to beat in the AFC at 3-0 early this season. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa were drafted in the same class in 2020, and this will be their first meeting in the NFL. This article will analyze the best player prop values for this exciting game.

Joe Mixon Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-120 BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start to the season for Joe Mixon as he has just 266 yards from scrimmage through three games and has yet to score a touchdown. Fantasy managers with Mixon (myself included) have been frustrated with his lack of production, particularly as he’s averaged just 2.8 yards per carry.

However, Mixon has been very involved in the receiving game for Cincinnati. He has 4.3 catches per game and 34.3 receiving yards per game this year, both of which are significantly ahead of where he was at last season. With the Bengals’ lack of consistent pass protection, he’s been an important receiving outlet.

The Dolphins are allowing a whopping 56.7 receiving yards per game this season to the running back position, the third-most in the NFL. Last week, Devin Singletary had nine catches for 78 yards against them – he graded out as the worst receiving back in football per PFF last year. Mixon should be productive through the air in this game.

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Joe Burrow Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)

The Dolphins played an excellent defensive game last week against the Bills, but they were on the field for over 40 minutes of game time in the heat and humidity in Miami. A short-week turnaround after that burden of work won’t be easy, particularly against this passing attack.

Miami still ranks just 29th in PFF’s team coverage grades and 15th in pass-rush grades. Even after that excellent game against the Bills, they are allowing the fourth-highest dropback success rate at 49.3% and the fifth-highest dropback EPA at 0.195. With all of their injuries on that end following last week’s game, Burrow should be able to take advantage.

My favorite part of this prop is that there are so many ways it can hit. Last week, it was a 56-yard catch-and-run from Tyler Boyd. This week, it might be a downfield bomb to Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. Regardless, you’re cashing in on this prop more often than not throughout Burrow’s career, and this is a great spot to do so again.
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Mike Gesicki Under 2.5 Receptions (-135 PointsBet)

Before the season started, we heard about how Mike Gesicki’s role in the Mike McDaniel offense would be different than what we have previously seen from him. So far, that has rung true. Per PFF, Gesicki has played more snaps in-line than out wide or in the slot in two of three weeks this year. That didn’t happen a single time in 2021.

Gesicki is also starting to lose snaps to Durham Smythe, who grades better as a blocker. Last week, Smythe played on 32 snaps to Gesicki’s 17, and he’s out snapped Gesicki 105-86 so far this season – that’s 60.3% of the team’s snaps for Smythe to 49.4% for Gesicki, and that trend should continue to unfold.

In Week 1 and Week 3 this season, Gesicki had just one reception. Both of those games were in positive or neutral game scripts throughout. In Week 2, he had four catches as Miami mounted a furious fourth-quarter comeback, but that was as negative a game script as you’ll see. Unless you expect that to happen this week, it’s hard to imagine Gesicki finding three catches in this game.

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I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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