Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Props (10/17/21)

For the second straight week, we have an early-morning London game played between two teams who have been entirely underwhelming this season. The Jaguars are working on an impressive 20-game losing streak while the Dolphins, almost a playoff team last season, sit at just 1-4 on the year. It’s hard to be confident in backing either of these teams to cover the spread this year, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t incredible value in betting on player props in this game. Let’s take a look at the best bets available.

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Search Tool

James Robinson Over 73.5 Rushing Yards

An undrafted free agent last year, James Robinson’s production has not been deterred by the Jaguars winning just one game with him on the team. Urban Meyer has finally relented and given Robinson an average of 17 rushing attempts per game over the past three weeks. Robinson has gone over 75 rushing yards in each of those games. Carlos Hyde’s involvement has decreased as he has only been on 18 snaps over the past two weeks. The Dolphins have allowed 133.6 rushing yards per game this year, the ninth-most in the NFL, and they rank as the twelfth-worst run defense in the NFL per Football Outsiders DVOA. Robinson should be heavily relied upon in this matchup, and I’m backing him to continue his high-level production.

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Dan Arnold Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

We don’t have a considerable sample size of Dan Arnold in a Jaguars’ jersey. Still, he was sought after by the current Jacksonville management to the point that he was valuable enough to give up C.J. Henderson, a 2020 first-round pick by the prior regime. Arnold was on the field for 73% of the team’s snaps in Week 5 and appeared to be a critical piece of the offense moving forward. He caught six passes for 64 yards last week and now takes on a Miami defense allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game this season. Arnold may not be the sexiest name, but he is third in the pecking order in the offense, and this line is too low for what should be a productive offensive showing for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars this week.

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Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Receptions

After a plodding start to the season, Mike Gesicki has averaged 6.3 receptions per game over the past three weeks. Detractors will argue that production came with Jacoby Brissett under center and now that Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup, Gesicki may not be as heavily used. However, DeVante Parker and Will Fuller will not be available this week, and Gesicki will be a top target in the offense once again alongside rookie Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa should be pretty productive against the defense that Football Outsiders ranks as the worst in the NFL against the pass this season, and Gesicki was in on 78% of snaps last week, a season-high mark, due to the injuries in the offense.

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Jaylen Waddle Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards

It’s always fun to bet on longest reception props as you get excellent value on game-breaking plays taking place. Miami targeted rookie Jaylen Waddle profiles as an elite yards after catch player in the first round due to his impressive athleticism and acceleration. Waddle’s receptions prop is set at over/under 4.5 catches, meaning Vegas is expecting him to be heavily involved with Parker and Fuller out this week. Waddle gets as good of a matchup as you could ask for against a hapless Jacksonville pass defense, and I’m excited to see him break off some long plays with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup.

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I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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