Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Player Props & Picks (12/11/22)

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Miami Dolphins Vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks

The Sunday Night Football matchup this week is delightful, and I’m thrilled that the NFL was able to flex this in favor of the previously set Chiefs vs. Broncos game. Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were drafted with back-to-back picks in 2020, and this is their second career meeting in the NFL.

In this article, I’ll dive into some of my favorite player props for this primetime game. As always, you can use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. For my official plays for the entire Week 14 slate, check out our main NFL player props page. Let’s get to work.

Justin Herbert Over 274.5 Passing Yards and 2+ Passing Touchdowns (DraftKings)

It’s been an up-and-down season for Justin Herbert, but this is a matchup he should be able to exploit. The Dolphins have faced a slew of middling quarterbacks lately, and they still rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA, 25th in success rate, and 18th in EPA.

Justin Herbert threw for 335 yards last week, and it was his highest total in a game since October 2. Needless to say, the mash unit on the offensive line and injuries to key skill position players have created difficult circumstances for Herbert.

However, he’ll have to pass the ball in this game. The Dolphins’ potent offense will put pressure on the Chargers to keep pace, while their run defense won’t allow Austin Ekeler to be the focal point – they rank fifth in early down rushing success rate allowed.

The Dolphins have also allowed 1.6 passing touchdowns per game, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Their injuries in the secondary have created continuous problems for them, particularly in the red zone where they rank 28th defensively.

The Chargers pass the ball at the second-highest rate and operate their offense at the fastest pace in neutral situations, so Herbert should have plenty of pass attempts against this vulnerable Miami defense. Look for him to capitalize.

Gerald Everett Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320 FanDuel)

Along with our Herbert passing props, let’s target a Chargers pass-catcher. The Dolphins allow the second-most receptions, eighth-most yards, and fourth-most touchdowns per game to tight ends this season, so Gerald Everett should have success in this matchup.

Everett went through a down stretch recently, but he bounced back last week with five receptions for 80 yards. While Everett hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 2, he ranks second on the team with 11 red-zone targets, and he’s likely due for some positive regression.

I’ll be very interested in Everett’s receiving yardage and receptions props, but they haven’t been posted on the books yet. Once those are up, I’ll determine if there’s value, but for now I’d recommend putting a half unit on Everett anytime touchdown.

As always, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different books. These lines can move drastically throughout the week, and the discrepancy between FanDuel at +320 and BetMGM at +210 is vast.

Raheem Mostert Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-130 FanDuel)

The Dolphins’ offense is full of speed, and Raheem Mostert remains one of the fastest players in the NFL, despite being 30 years old. Mostert has a long run of 13+ yards in six of his last eight games, and he’s averaging 4.6 YPC this season.

The Chargers present a perfect opportunity for him to break off a couple of long runs as they allow the third-most yards per carry and are generally terrible against the run. Mostert should be able to take advantage of this linebacking corps that is the third-worst in the league in tackling per PFF.

There are two big reasons to take the longest rush prop rather than his rushing yardage. The Dolphins pass the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and it’s unclear how many carries he’ll wind up with. In addition, Jeff Wilson Jr. will be involved and Miami will likely ride the hot hand.

I can’t fault you if you want to take a non-juiced 13.5-yard prop, and there are options for that if you use the search tool above. However, every yard matters when we’re talking about these types of markets, so I’ll drink a little juice here.