Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets matchup on (10/9/22).
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Dolphins Vs. Jets Player Prop Picks
This weekend, we have a pretty bizarre edition of an AFC East divisional rivalry. The Jets are a relatively stunning 2-2, and they just got second-year QB back from an injury absence. On the opposite sideline, the Dolphins are on top of the division with a 3-1 record and the NFL’s most impressive collection of wins so far, but they just lost budding superstar QB Tua Tagovailoa to one of the more terrifying concussions I’ve ever seen. Let’s take a look at some individual player props and see who will shine or flop as the Dolphins try and survive without their QB, and the Jets try to jump to a shock 3-2 start.
Garrett Wilson o44.5 Receiving Yards
I actually refreshed the page to make sure this was the correct, available number when I was looking through bets for this game; it seems far too good to be true. But it is true, and the total has actually fallen from 46.5 over the past day. I’ve long viewed Wilson as the next superstar NFL wideout, pretty soundly the best prospect in an unbelievable wideout draft class, and he’s been very impressive in the league so far. He’s been over this total in three of four games so far; the number is just depressed because his most recent game was his worst. But that game was against a pretty solid pass defense, the 15th best secondary in the NFL according to PFF. This week, he faces a Dolphins secondary that PFF thinks is bottom-four, and has allowed the second-most pass yards of any team in the NFL so far. Pair that with the fact that the Jets will likely be trailing and thus slinging the ball all game long, and we have a winning combination for Wilson to put up some good numbers.
Teddy Bridgewater u32.5 Pass Attempts and Zach Wilson o33.5 Pass Attempts
This bet has more to do with game script than anything else, so it seemed only right to discuss both quarterbacks’ totals together. On Bridgewater’s end, 33 passes is well over his career average, and it wouldn’t make much sense for this week to be an outlier as Miami might seek to stay conservative and control the game after the huge disruption to the passing game. For Wilson, his number was actually set at 32.5 just a day ago, so the number is rising- public sentiment is behind the over, and the one extra pass he’ll have to attempt isn’t a huge difference maker for me. The Jets have not been afraid for Wilson to let it rip early in his career. Whether or not they should be afraid is another question altogether, but he’s been allowed to throw the ball plenty and there’s no reason that should stop in a game where the Jets are pretty likely to spend a lot of time trailing. Wilson threw 32 or more passed in 8 of his 13 starts as a rookie, and in his return from injury last week, the Jets immediately turned him loose as he threw 36 passes, and even caught one for a touchdown. Sunday’s likely game script means should be throwing all day, and Teddy Two Gloves might do just the opposite.
Raheem Mostert Longest Carry o14.5 Yards
This is another number that is rising; it was 13.5 a day ago, but the money is pushing it higher. Again, I don’t think the extra yard is a huge deal; Mostert is just as likely to rip off a 20+ yard gainer as he is one in the low teens. The Jets have been a pretty average run defense, giving up just over 100 ground yards per game. That being said, they’re rather significantly below-average in the realm of tackling efficiency. This is relevant in the scope of finding that one big run; with all of his speed, Mostert just needs to slip a tackle or two and he could be gone for the 15 yards you need for this prop, or far, far more. As I’ve already established, the Fins are likely to spend more time grinding the ball into the ground than they have in previous weeks, and as he emerges as the team’s lead back, Mostert should have a very solid workload, and plenty of chances to pull away for the big run this prop needs.