Miami (OH) vs Miami (FL): Odds, Prediction, & Best Bet (9/1/23)

Miami (OH) vs. Miami (FL) kicks off this Friday at 7:30pm EST in Miami as a home game for the Hurricanes. Miami (FL) is currently a -17 favorite and -800 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45.5. Read on for more Miami (OH) vs. Miami (FL) best bets and predictions as the spread may be decided on the status of a certain quarterback.

Miami (OH) Vs. Miami (FL) Prediction & Best Bet

It’s the battle of Miami as the Redhawks high powered offense takes on the new look Hurricane defense. Miami (FL) was a popular sleeper pick heading into last year to make some noise in the ACC yet grossly underperformed in a disappointing season that featured an anemic offense and a lackluster defense.

The shocking low level of play called for an immediate change on the defensive end as the Hurricanes could not stop a nosebleed. While their Def Success Rate hovered around league average, their Def Explosiveness was near dead last as they clocked in at 96th. Especially through the air, ranking at an even lower 121st.

With an immediate pressing need to improve their defense, the Hurricanes poached Marshall’s Lance Guidry to help turn this side of the ball around. While he found success at Marshall, it may not come so easily with the Hurricanes in his first stint at Miami. His defensive scheme heavily relies on his second level to make open field tackles and that is exactly where the Hurricanes mightily struggled last season. A big reason for their low rank in Def Explosiveness.

With the Hurricanes lack of open field tackling, this opens the door for the Redhawks offense to find success. Miami (OH) struggled with creating drives down the field, relying on explosiveness over consistency. With the Hurricanes defense failing to bring down opposing playmakers, the Redhawks should have no issue with generating scoring opportunities.

Miami (OH) Vs. Miami (FL) Odds

Even with defensive concerns and a major lingering question mark at quarterback, oddsmakers still believe the Hurricanes comfortably get the win by opening them as a -17.5 favorite. With Miami (FL) Tyler Van Dyke still being listed as questionable, that number has since ticked down to -16.5 as of writing. While Van Dyke was underwhelming last year, he still serves as their best option at quarterback for the Hurricanes this season. 

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 46.5. With Van Dyke’s availability in question, that number has since been bet down to 45.5. Should Van Dyke be unable to go then the Hurricanes would lean heavier toward the run, draining the clock against a stout Redhawk rush defense. A defense that ranked top-35 in Def Rush Success Rate and top-10 in Def Rush Explosiveness.

Miami (OH) Vs. Miami (FL) Key Matchups

Can Brett Gabbert return back to form after being injured for a majority of 2022? How will the Redhawks secondary limit Miami’s pass attack?

The Return of Brett Gabbert

The Redhawks offense goes as far as Gabbert can take them. That was made apparent last year as their offensive metrics tanked after Gabbert went down with an injury. He was limited to just four starts in his 2022 campaign, forcing the Redhawks to turn to backup Aveon Smith. Smith did a good job at limiting his number of turnovers but had serious accuracy issues as he finished the year throwing for a lowly 49.8%.

Miami of Ohio QB Brett Gabbert says that they’re the real Miami.

“We’ll show them September 1st” pic.twitter.com/y7CVcZgjA0

— Andrew Ferrelli (@Andrew_Ferrelli) August 26, 2023

With Gabbert back in action, the Redhawks offense is poised to generate downfield success as he is a far more stable presence under center. He threw for four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and at a 64.3% completion rate in his limited play last year. His biggest concern is his health as he has battled multiple long-term injuries throughout his career.

Tyler Van Dyke vs Redhawks Secondary

On the other end of the quarterback battle comes with a lot more question marks as Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke is currently questionable after suffering a hand injury earlier this week. 

This could be a major sigh of relief for the Redhawks as they mightily struggled in limiting opposing pass attacks. They ranked 88th in Def Success Rate, 75th in Def Pass Explosiveness, and 107th in Def Pass PPA. 

Should Van Dyke be unable to go then the Hurricanes will turn towards Jacurri Brown who threw for as many touchdowns (3) as he did interceptions last season. A major drop off in production from Van Dyke who serves as a far capable downfield passer.

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