Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics NBA Player Props & Picks (12/25/22)

Get Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics player prop picks & odds for the (12/25/22) matchup

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Player Prop Picks

For the third game of the Christmas slate, the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Boston Celtics in a likely preview of the Eastern Conference Finals. The preview on the game lines can be found here, but read below for player prop best bets.

Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120 DK)

Despite starting at shooting guard or small forward, Brown is a key rebounder for the Celtics. In December, he is averaging 9.3 RPG and has hit the over in 9 of 11 games. The pace will be fast, and both squads have been inconsistent shooting lately. This opens the door for a flood of rebounds, and Brown is primed to grab many of them. It seems like Brown would have to compete with too many big men, but Lopez and Horford are not traditional rebounders – they spend far more time out of the paint than most centers

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Al Horford Under 9.5 Points (-113 FD)

While Horford still has the ability, Boston’s numerous scorers means Horford’s volume isn’t great. He’s at a career low 7.6 FGA, and he’s averaging 10 PPG because of incredible efficiency. Horford has scored less than 9 points six times in his last seven games. His matchup is also extremely difficult, as the Bucks defense is a nightmare for opponents. Giannis can shut down Horford completely, and Lopez can stick to him on the perimeter. Even Milwaukee’s shorter players are suitable, as Jrue, Jevon, and MarJon can contest Horford’s shots. Overall, it’s not a great spot to back a good Horford scoring game. 

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Giannis Antetokounmpo -1.5 Points H2H Versus Jayson Tatum (-120 DK)

Which player has the higher ceiling? Which player is more reliable? Which player has the better matchup? Giannis is the answer for all those questions, so I’m thrilled to get -1.5 here. Tatum faces a defense that ranks 3rd in Defensive Rating, 3rd in transition defense, and 5th in half-court defense. Tatum will have Giannis hounding him all game, and it won’t get much better on a Jrue Holiday switch or Brook Lopez help defense. Meanwhile, Giannis will get easy points against a Boston defense that surprisingly ranks 18th in half-court defense. Giannis also holds the free throw edge, which has a high expected points per possession. 

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Grayson Allen Over 1.5 Threes (+125 DK)

Khris Middleton is out, so his FGA must be dispersed. Jrue is the obvious answer, and while I do expect a bump in volume, Smart’s ferocious on-ball defense will force him to pass more than usual. Of all the Boston starters, White is the weak link (although he’s a good defender). Allen can navigate crushing Giannis or Lopez screens to set himself up for a decent look from three, and I expect him to sink them. Allen’s at 1.8 3PM, 4.3 3PA, and a 41.1 3PT% for the season, so it’s correct to characterize him as a sharpshooter. 

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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