Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Player Props (12/5/21)

The Vikings suffered a considerable setback when Dalvin Cook left last week’s game with a shoulder injury, and he will at least miss this week’s game with what would have been a juicy matchup against the Lions. D’Andre Swift will also miss this week’s game with a shoulder injury of his own. How will the respective offenses navigate the losses of arguably their best player? That’s the primary question we have to answer when looking at player props for this game. You can use the player prop search tool below to find the best values in your market for player props from the Vikings vs. Lions game.

Minnesota Vikings Vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Search Tool

Alexander Mattison Over 77.5 Rushing Yards

I don’t quite understand why this line is so low. In two previous starts this season, Mattison totaled 51 rushing attempts and topped 112 yards in both games, one of which came against the Lions. Detroit is allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL, and the game script in this matchup will be conducive to Mattison seeing a heavy workload on the ground. If you want to mix and match your Mattison bets, there can be decent value on receptions, receiving yards, and total yards for him, but this is my favorite value bet, and I believe he smashes this line.

Jamaal Williams Over 4.5 Receptions

With D’Andre Swift out this week, the Lions are missing their leading pass-catcher this season. Jamaal Williams will step into the starting RB role, and he’ll be heavily relied upon in the passing game. The Lions have targeted their running backs on 28.5% of plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Minnesota ranks second in pass defense DVOA against running backs, which could be a concern with this prop. However, the Lions are pretty limited in pass-catching options, and Williams should see a heavy target share this week.

Josh Reynolds Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

When the Titans released Josh Reynolds earlier this season, the Lions made it a top priority to bring him in. Detroit’s wide receiver corps has been arguably the worst in the NFL, and Reynolds has quickly risen to the top of the pecking order. He led the team with three catches for 70 yards and a touchdown last week, and while he didn’t catch a pass the week prior, he did get three targets in his first game with the Lions. Reynolds leads the team’s skill position players with an 89% snap share over the past two weeks, and the Vikings’ secondary has been quite vulnerable at times this season. The game script should also dictate that the Lions air the ball out in the second half, and a couple of big garbage time should see Reynolds well over this line.

Tyler Conklin Under 4.5 Receptions

I was surprised to see this line at 4.5 instead of 3.5, and I believe it’s overpriced given Conklin’s role in the offense. In a game earlier this season against the Seahawks, Conklin did have seven receptions as Dalvin Cook sat. However, Kirk Cousins is averaging just over 21 completions per game in seven career games with the Vikings against the Lions, and it’s easy to envision a scenario where the passing volume is minimal this week as the Vikings run the ball ad nauseam. Conklin has not surpassed three receptions in any of his last three games, and he’s averaging just 3.6 receptions per game this season. With a hit rate on the over on this prop of just 27% this year, the under is an easy play.