Get Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the (10/16/22) matchup
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
The Minnesota Vikings (4-1) head down to sunny South Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday, October 16 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins are down to third string QB Skylar Thompson, a rookie 7th round pick who saw his first NFL action last week against the Jets after Teddy Bridgewater left the game in the first quarter with a concussion. But it wasn’t Thompson who struggled the most in the disappointing loss to New York, it was the Dolphins’ defense, which gave up five touchdowns on the ground. Could Vikings running back Dalvin Cook be in store for a big day against that same defense?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like best in this Vikings vs. Dolphins matchup.
Raheem Mostert over 61.5 rushing yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Mostert has emerged from the Dolphins’ crowded backfield as the clear lead back over the last two weeks. He has out-touched all other Dolphins running backs 36-15 during that span while logging over 70% of the snaps.
Last week against the Jets, Mostert racked up 118 yards on 18 carries after gaining 69 yards on 15 carries the week before. With Thompson under center, expect the workload to continue for Mostert.
One factor working against this pick is that the Vikings are likely to focus on stopping the run and forcing Thompson to beat them through the air, but that doesn’t scare me off. The Vikings’ defense is below average against the run (19th in the league, and giving up 89.8 yards per game to opposing running backs). The Jets have a better run defense than the Vikings, and Mostert still found success against them.
As an alternative, I also like Mostert’s prop line of 74.5 combined rushing and receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings), which he has also eclipsed the last two weeks. This would offer a bit more safety if the Dolphins fall behind early and need to throw the ball to keep up. In that scenario, Mostert would be in line for some checkdown work as a safety blanket for Thompson.
Jaylen Waddle under 56.5 receiving yards (-120 on DraftKings)
No player has suffered more from the injury to Tua Tagovailoa than Waddle. After averaging 6.3 catches, 10 targets and 114 yards per game through the first three games with Tagovailoa, Waddle has just five catches on nine targets for 62 yards in the last two games. Tyreek Hill, on the other hand, has maintained consistent volume with 21 targets on a whopping 31% target share.
I see no reason to expect that trend to change this week against the Vikings. Of course, Waddle could take a quick slant or a bubble screen for over 56 yards on a single play, but I like the chances of him staying under that number this week.
Justin Jefferson over 86.5 receiving yards (-114 at BetRivers)
After a mini two-week slump, Jefferson has exploded over the last two weeks with 22 catches on 26 targets for 301 yards. He is one of the best wide receivers in the game, period, and the Dolphins give up the 9th most yards to opposing WRs. Do you need any more reason to take the over on Jefferson’s receiving prop this week?
OK, here is another. Miami is one of the heaviest man coverage teams in the league, but they generate pressure on the quarterback at the third lowest rate in the league (14.3% of opposing QB dropbacks). That is a bad combination against one of the best route runners in the game. Another big game is coming for Jefferson.