Minnesota Vikings Vs. Washington Commanders NFL Player Props & Picks (11/6/22)

Get Minnesota Vikings Vs. Washington Commanders player prop picks & odds for the (11/6/22) matchup

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Minnesota Vikings Vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Picks

On Sunday morning, Kirk Cousins will make a return to his old stomping grounds in Washington to face a red-hot Commanders team on a three-game win streak. The Vikings sit at 6-1, but some of their results have been shaky, and they should be on upset alert this week. In this article, I’ll break down the best player prop values on the board in this game. You can use the Vikings vs. Commanders player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Terry McLaurin Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

The introduction of Taylor Heinecke to the starting lineup has been a boon for Terry McLaurin’s production. Check out the following numbers:

Terry McLaurin with Carson Wentz: 16% target share, 27% air yardage share, 3.6 catches for 61.2 yards per game

Terry McLaurin with Taylor Heinecke: 26% target share, 57% air yardage share, 5.5 catches for 93 yards per game

In other words, Heinecke is targeting McLaurin more frequently and further downfield, giving him more valuable opportunities to pick up chunk yardage and score.

This week, McLaurin faces a Minnesota defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA against WR1s. Last week, DeAndre Hopkins had 159 receiving yards against Minnesota. In the week prior, the Vikings coughed up over 300 total yards to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This is an ideal matchup for McLaurin, and Heinecke will help him take advantage.

Adam Thielen Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards (-130 DraftKings)

Adam Thielen is still a very good possession receiver, but gone are the days of him being a dynamic downfield threat. Thielen has hit the under on this prop in six straight games, and his only reception of 20+ yards this season came in Week 1. On average, his longest reception the last six weeks has been 15.8 yards.

Among 47 wide receivers with 40+ targets this season, Thielen’s 70 yards after the catch rank 45th. His 10.0 aDOT also ranks 31st in that group. He’s only seen two targets 20+ yards downfield all season per PFF, and if he’s not getting YAC consistently, it’s very difficult for him to hit the over on this particular prop. I don’t mind the juice here given the likelihood of it hitting.

Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-111 Caesars)

Unlike Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson regularly gets long receptions. 42.6% of his targets have come 10+ yards downfield per PFF, and he’s caught 58.6% of those targets, which is an elite conversion rate. Jefferson has hit the over on this prop in each of his last four games, and in two of those he had catches of 40+ yards.

The Commanders’ pass defense has progressively improved, particularly after removing William Jackson from the lineup, but they’ve still allowed a catch of 30+ yards in all but one game this season. The one concern here is that Kirk Cousins will be under pressure consistently this week, but Jefferson has 335 yards after the catch this year, which is the second-most in the NFL.