MLB Best Bets (5/23/23): Expert Picks & Predictions for Athletics vs Mariners, Guardians vs White Sox, & More

Tuesday features a full slate of MLB games, highlighted by a matchup between the Dodgers and Braves. Meanwhile, the Orioles and Yankees start a series in New York while the Blue Jays look to shrink their AL East deficit against the Rays. Let’s have a look at the odds and best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action.

MLB best bets for May 23

Here are the best bets from Tuesday’s slate of MLB games.

Best Bet 1: Athletics vs. Mariners Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

The A’s have been a bad offensive team, but they haven’t been historically bad. It’s the pitching that has sunk the franchise to the bottom of the league. In a matchup of pitchers with an ERA over six, over 8.5 runs should be a very attainable mark on Tuesday.

The Mariners are 16th in runs per game even as Julio Rodriguez struggles to repeat last year’s excellence. Seattle has a frustrating offense, but there’s more than enough in the lineup to have its way with a terrible A’s staff. On the mound for Oakland is Luis Medina, who has given up 13 ER in 17 IP this season. His WHIP indicates better days are likely ahead, but he was hit hard in his one road start and could be an easy target for the Mariners before he hands the keys to an even worse bullpen.

The A’s offense is capable enough that Marco Gonzales and his 6.10 ERA are far from untouchable. This is an Oakland lineup that relies on the occasional home run – they’re near the middle of the pack in home runs – and Gonzales gave up 30 last season.

Best Bet 2: White Sox Moneyline (+102) vs. Guardians

The White Sox have started to look much better lately, with Luis Robert leading the offense and the bullpen making huge strides. One more puzzle piece Chicago needs to start producing is Dylan Cease, and a matchup with a struggling Cleveland offense might be one he could use to get back on track.
While the Guardians don’t strike out too much, they’ve taken a step back offensively because their contact no longer is enough to make up for their total lack of power. If Cease can’t get it done with the way they’ve been hitting, it would officially be time for concern.

Unproven rookie starter Logan Allen has been rock solid through five starts for Cleveland, but his 1.46 WHIP is a bit of a concern against a White Sox team finding its groove at the plate. Chicago +102 is a nice value.

Best Bet 3: Giants Under 3.5 Runs (-108)

The Giants have hit an impressive number of home runs this season. Unfortunately, they don’t do much else offensively. Sitting 17th in runs per game despite ranking top-five in home runs, the Giants rely on Michael Conforto and a ragtag group of hitters to mash home runs in order to win. That can work with Alex Cobb on the mound, considering he’s pitched well since the middle of last season, but running into the buzzsaw that is Sonny Gray is not a great matchup.

Gray has yet to allow a single home run through nine starts this season. In a park that isn’t exactly hitter-friendly, this feels like a low-scoring game that could be especially rough for the Giants if they can’t find a way to break through against Gray in a way no team has this season.

Best Bet 4: Marlins Under 5.5 Runs (+102)

The Marlins have scored more than five runs in just one of their last 17 games. So why is this line set at 5.5 runs? They’re playing at Coors Field and facing a dismal starter in Austin Gomber. Gomber has a more respectable 3.54 ERA over his last five starts, though, and Miami didn’t show much at the plate in the opening game of the series.

With Jazz Chisholm out of the picture for now, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for Miami to put runs on the board. Even in a win, asking for six or more seems like wishful thinking. Under 11 runs is worth a look as well, but Eury Perez is a pitcher to be careful with in his first start at Coors Field.