MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Yankees vs. Mariners, Padres vs. Marlins & More from Wednesday’s Slate (5/31/23)
Wednesday’s slate of MLB games features 28 of the 30 teams, including matchups such as an NL East series between the Phillies and Mets as well as the series finale between the Yankees and Mariners. Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola, and Mitch Keller are among the big names taking the hill. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets for Wednesday May 31st.
MLB best bets for May 31
Here’s a look at the best bets from Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Marlins Moneyline vs. Padres (+110)
The Marlins are home underdogs against the Padres, even after San Diego’s rough first two months. The Padres took care of business against Miami on Tuesday night, but something still doesn’t seem quite right with this team. Juan Soto’s recent surge hasn’t been enough to make a meaningful difference, and the pitching has been hit-or-miss.
Blake Snell is one of those inconsistent arms. His 5.39 FIP indicates he’s been even worse than the raw numbers suggest, and Snell’s walk rate of 5.6 per nine is giving teams rally-starters and forcing the Padres to go to their bullpen early. A Marlins offense that has shown flashes with Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz, and Yuli Gurriel heating up could take advantage.
On the other side, Braxton Garrett has allowed only 3 ER over his last three starts. He looks like he’s getting comfortable, and a Padres lineup that doesn’t hit for much contact could be a decent matchup for him. As the Padres struggle to string together wins, Marlins +110 is an attractive play.
Yankees vs. Mariners Over 7.5 Runs (-108)
The Yankees and Mariners are at their best when Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez are raking, respectively. Right now, Judge and Rodriguez can’t be stopped.
New York’s offense is rolling right along thanks to Judge, and the Mariners have taken a big step forward because the heart of their lineup is finally hitting up to his potential. 7.5 runs feels like too low of an over/under for this pitching matchup, considering what the offenses can do.
It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see George Kirby bounce back for Seattle, but his brutal start against the Pirates has to raise some eyebrows. If he can let Pittsburgh hit four home runs, the Yankees’ power could be an issue.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the Mariners can get to Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt’s recent track record is the opposite of Kirby’s, as he had a terrible start to the season but has really settled down in his last two starts. Whether that’s sustainable on the road against the Mariners is way too uncertain for the over/under to be so low.
Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+250)
This feels like it’s worth the shot. Trout hasn’t homered in five consecutive games, but that’s unlikely to last long. Lance Lynn gives him a real chance to get back on the board. The veteran starter has a dismal 5.83 ERA this season and has already allowed 12 home runs despite starting the season on the IL.
With a career worst rate of 1.7 HR/9, Lynn hasn’t looked like the pitcher he once was and will be a popular pitcher to bet against until he starts to prove this uncharacteristic season isn’t a sign of steep decline.
Pirates Moneyline vs. Giants (+108)
The Pirates entered Tuesday 6-19 in their last 25 games, but they went 3-2 in Mitch Keller starts in that span. Keller struggled his last time out – in a win – but he has two utterly dominant starts under his belt in the month of May and should match up well with a Giants lineup that needs to hit home runs in order to win.
Keller’s FIP matches his ERA, his swing-and-miss rate is very impressive, and his control looks like it’s permanently turned a corner this season. It’s unlikely Keller’s success is a fluke, even if he won’t be a Cy Young contender. As long as that’s true, I wouldn’t expect him to turn in back-to-back clunkers.
This is a great bounce-back opportunity for Keller, and bettors will have to bank on a shaky Pirates offense to do just enough against Alex Wood and the Giants’ bullpen.