MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Braves vs. Phillies, Astros vs. Mets & More from Wednesday’s Slate (6/21/23)
Wednesday brings another full slate of MLB games, including plenty of afternoon action. Zac Gallen, Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, and Kevin Gausman highlight the day’s pitchers. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets on the board Wednesday.
MLB Best Bets for June 21
Here’s a look at the best bets from Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins Over 7 Runs (-114)
The Blue Jays haven’t been hitting much at all. The Marlins have been hitting better than expected, but their lineup still isn’t balanced enough. You can thank all of that for this over/under of 7 runs on Wednesday, low enough to get real value out of the over.
Sandy Alcantara has been taking one step forward and two steps back all season long, even allowing 10 hits to the lowly Nationals his last time out. We keep waiting for that breakthrough performance, but until we see Alcantara put it together in back-to-back starts, it’s not safe to bet on his success. As much as the Blue Jays have struggled, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are at least contact bats who can start or extend rallies.
Kevin Gausman looks like the stronger of the two starters right now. The Marlins hit .273 at home, however, and should be able to scratch across some runs. Luis Arraez has started to hit out of his mind again while Jorge Soler remains a premier power threat. There’s enough offensive potential between these two teams to take a flier on 7+ runs.
Astros Over 4.5 Runs vs. Mets (+100)
The Astros have hit a rough patch lately with Yordan Alvarez out of the lineup, but Framber Valdez stopped the losing streak on Tuesday and Houston could be ready to break out offensively on Wednesday.
Tylor Megill has been a disaster on the road lately, allowing a total of 21 runs (only 15 earned) over his last three starts away from Citi Field. Against an Astros lineup that still has a dangerous top of the order with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker, the chances of Megill rounding into form don’t look tremendous.
The Astros should be able to take advantage of one of the Mets’ weaker starters and post 5+ runs at home.
Athletics vs. Guardians Under 8 Runs (-105)
The A’s have hit a bit better in June than in May, which was one reason for their winning streak, but that stretch seems to be something of the past right now. This Oakland lineup is flawed enough that a rookie with no major-league tape could be trouble.
Gavin Williams looks MLB ready as he makes his debut, with a 2.39 ERA across 12 minor league starts this season and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Williams has done an excellent job of limiting hits, and the A’s simply don’t record many hits compared to the rest of the league.
On the other side, Paul Blackburn is probably Oakland’s best starter at this point. Now healthy, Blackburn had a nice first half last season and has a solid 3.48 ERA through his first four starts this season. Against a Cleveland lineup without much pop, he could see some success. Under eight runs is definitely attainable.
Braves Moneyline (+108) vs. Phillies
The Phillies have been red hot of late, and pitching has been the biggest reason. Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, and Ranger Suarez have all been looking terrific. They’re still waiting on Aaron Nola to join the party.
Nola has been far too inconsistent in his contract year – even some of his stronger starts unravel once something starts to go wrong. Nola has a 5.34 ERA over his last five starts. While he’s continued to generate strikeouts, Nola has allowed a home run in 11 consecutive starts. The Braves lead the league in home runs and are striking out much less than they were in 2022.
Even at home against a 20-year-old starter, Atlanta is going to be a very difficult matchup for Nola and the Phillies. AJ Smith-Shawver has looked capable so far and can put the Braves in position for another road win.