MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Dodgers vs. Rockies, Red Sox vs. Marlins & More from Tuesday’s Slate (6/27/23)
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Tuesday features a full slate of MLB games with all 30 teams in action. There are a handful of great interleague series, including Reds vs. Brewers and Rays vs. Diamondbacks as the midway point of the season nears. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets from Tuesday’s action.
MLB best bets for June 27
Here’s a look at the best bets from Tuesday’s slate of MLB games.
Red Sox Moneyline (-112) vs. Marlins
Oddsmakers are still putting some faith in a bounce back stretch from Sandy Alcantara, but there’s no indication one is coming. Alcantara has allowed five earned runs in three of his last four starts, and that includes rough starts against the helpless A’s and Nationals. These haven’t been cheap runs, either. Alcantara allowed 10 hits in each of his last two starts.
The reigning Cy Young winner has still kept home runs relatively low, which is a positive sign, but he’s been getting bludgeoned by hits and is facing a Red Sox lineup that hits .291 with an .837 OPS at home. Contact hitters like Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, and Justin Turner could be a unique problem for Alcantara.
Garrett Whitlock isn’t a sure thing on the mound for the Red Sox, but with a 4.07 FIP and the ability to give Boston some length against a lineup that doesn’t have enough around Luis Arraez, the Red Sox have value at -112.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Under 12 Runs (-115)
Be careful not to overestimate the impact of Coors Field. Connor Seabold has struggled enough that the Dodgers could pile on some runs, though this isn’t a lineup that has been crushing it lately. Around Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez has been struggling while Max Muncy and Chris Taylor have both hit the IL. Seabold’s last two home starts were not disasters (even if his most recent road outing was), and this Dodgers lineup just isn’t as intimidating as it was earlier in the season.
The Rockies’ lineup isn’t intimidating at all. Colorado can and will score runs at home, but their 25-1 loss to the Angels was a reminder their incompetence typically extends beyond the Coors Field impact.
With Clayton Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers, a scoring outburst would be a surprise. Six of the Rockies’ last eight home games have come in under 12 runs, and there’s enough evidence to show the under has a strong chance on Tuesday.
Braves Under 4.5 Runs (-105)
The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball and were able to take advantage against Sonny Gray on Monday after a slow start to the night offensively. Joe Ryan has a chance to be another tough challenge for Atlanta.
Ryan is coming off a dominant outing in which he tossed a three-hit complete game shutout against the Red Sox. His 2.79 FIP and outstanding 0.91 WHIP are a reminder that his ERA is not a mirage, and Ryan has seen his home run rate steadily improve throughout his career.
While the Braves can still pop a couple home runs because they’re built for power, Ryan’s track record and the value on Under 4.5 runs (-105) makes it the pick. The Twins’ bullpen has also gotten outstanding seasons out of Jhoan Duran and Brock Stewart in the bullpen, so some length from Ryan could lead to a stress-free close to the game.
Brewers Moneyline (+124) vs. Mets
It might be surprising to see the Mets as pretty solid favorites considering the way they’ve played recently, but the logic isn’t all bad. New York is at home, and Brewers starter Julio Teheran is due for regression with a FIP more than two runs higher than his ERA. It’s just too difficult to ignore David Peterson’s struggles for the Mets.
With an ERA over 8 and an inability to give the team much length, Peterson will give the Brewers a chance to score runs and get to the Mets’ embattled bullpen early. Plus, while losing streaks don’t last forever, New York’s 5-16 record over its last 21 games and increasing pressure on Buck Showalter are tough trends to ignore. There’s enough value on the Brewers to ride the Mets’ struggles.
