MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Astros vs. Cardinals, Reds vs. Orioles & More from Wednesday’s Slate (6/28/23)

All 30 teams are in action once again on Wednesday, and there figures to be offense. While Blake Snell, Logan Webb, and Cristian Javier will all be on the mound, there won’t be too many aces getting the ball on what will be a warm summer night. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets for Wednesday’s games.

MLB Best Bets for June 28

Here’s a look at the best bets from Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Harrison Bader to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Harrison Bader isn’t viewed as much of a power hitter, and that’s fair. Still, he has six home runs through 32 games this season – that’s a 150-game pace of 28. He could be in a strong position to homer on Wednesday.

JP Sears, who has otherwise pitched very well lately, has had some serious issues with the home run ball. He’s allowed five blasts in his last three starts while limiting the damage elsewhere, and he’s sitting on a rate of 1.9 home runs per nine innings this year.

Bader is historically very solid against left-handed pitchers, with an .831 career OPS compared to his .692 OPS against right-handers. That’s carried over into 2023, though the sample size is still small. This would be an even better bet at Yankee Stadium, but at +480 with Sears’ issues and Bader’s success against lefties, he’s a better value than other Yankees hitters.

Reds vs. Orioles Over 9 Runs (-122)

The method here is pretty simple: If Luke Weaver is pitching, bet the over.

The run totals in the last five games started by Weaver are 21, 16, 9, 17, and 9. That’s not a coincidence. Weaver has a 6.88 ERA, 5.52 FIP, and allows both hits and home runs at an abysmal rate. A matchup on the road against an Orioles lineup that just got more challenging with the addition of Jordan Westburg is another trouble spot for Weaver.

Don’t forget the Reds can really hit, too. Kyle Gibson has had a better year for Baltimore, but he’s a near-lock to at least allow a handful of runs. It feels like one of Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Matt McLain is homering on a given night, and these two offenses should combine for more than nine runs after a slower offensive night on Tuesday.

Astros Moneyline (+100) vs. Cardinals

The Astros have hit a rough patch of late, but they still have two starters they can typically rely on. Framber Valdez is one of them, and Cristian Javier is the other. Even with a reduced strikeout rate, Javier has kept home runs low and lowered his walk rate. He has a WHIP barely above 1.00 on the road, and the Astros aren’t much worse on the road (20-18) than they are at home (22-19) this season.

Javier could have an opportunity to get his strikeouts up against the Cardinals. St. Louis had a 21.0% strikeout rate in April, 21.6% in May, and now 22.9% in June. The Cardinals aren’t hitting like it once was, even while they were really struggling.

Miles Mikolas has been hit-or-miss all season, but a 5.63 ERA and .330 opponent AVG in June is a reminder the Astros are more than capable of getting to him.

Rays -1.5 vs. Diamondbacks (+110)

We’re taking a page out of the Luke Weaver playbook above and keeping it simple: Zach Davies has not been a major-league caliber starter for the Diamondbacks this year. He has a 7.82 ERA and -1.0 WAR, and he’s allowed 18 ER over his last 10.2 IP.

This feels like a mismatch, especially with Randy Arozarena starting to heat up, Jose Siri hitting for real power, and Yandy Diaz continuing to swing a hot bat. Tampa was able to get to Zac Gallen after falling in a 5-0 hole on Tuesday, and this offense seems poised for a big night against a much weaker starter.

Zach Eflin will get the ball for the Rays – while holding down this Arizona offense isn’t easy, he’s been stable this season with a WHIP barely above one. His home/road splits are a bit concerning, but Chase Field isn’t exactly a hitters’ haven. A comfortable Rays win should be no surprise.