MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Blue Jays vs Brewers, Padres vs. Marlins & More from Thursday’s Slate (6/1/23)
It’s a typical quiet slate of MLB games on Thursday, with only seven on the docket. There is still plenty of value across the board. Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Kevin Gausman, and Hunter Greene highlight Thursday’s starters, adding some intrigue to the first action of June. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets for Thursday June 1st.
MLB best bets for June 1
Here’s a look at the best bets from Thursday’s slate of MLB games.
Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs vs. Brewers (-122)
Freddy Peralta’s string of shaky performances could make for a nice opportunity with the Blue Jays’ offense here. Peralta got shelled by the Giants in his last start, allowing 10 runs (though many unearned), and he has a 5.74 ERA outside of his first two starts of the season.
Most concerning is the fact Peralta hasn’t generated more than 10 swinging strikes in any of his last four starts, after doing so four times in his first six starts. He’s a pitcher who relies on strikeouts but has struggled to get outs when his stuff isn’t at his best. A road matchup with a very talented Blue Jays lineup could be trouble.
Bo Bichette has been tearing the cover off the ball, and George Springer has been hitting for more contact even if the power hasn’t caught up. Toronto’s power decline is an issue, but 4.5 runs is a low enough mark to take the over, even at -122.
Joe Musgrove o5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Joe Musgrove isn’t much of a swing-and-miss pitcher and never has been, but he’s started to make some strides lately after a tough stretch following an IL stint. Musgrove was sitting near 12 strikes looking per start until his last two, when he got that number up to 17 and 19. That turned into six strikeouts in each start. There’s a real chance he builds on that momentum and a nice start against the Yankees on Thursday.
The Marlins’ offense is still nothing special as Jorge Soler cools back down. Having a member of the lineup who simply doesn’t strike out (Luis Arraez) is part of the reason why Musgrove’s over/under is only 5.5, but Miami is still toward the middle of the pack with 8.56 strikeouts per game. After Blake Snell held the Marlins scoreless on Wednesday, look for Musgrove to dial it up and hopefully rack up a few Ks.
Padres Moneyline vs. Marlins (-115)
One of Wednesday’s best bets was Marlins moneyline against the Padres, and Miami came through with the win in the bottom of the ninth. Could the pendulum swing back to the Padres on Thursday?
Musgrove’s progress, as described above, is one major reason why San Diego is positioned well. The sad state of the Marlins’ offense without Jazz Chisholm and with Soler’s home run binge quieting down could make for a momentum-building start for Musgrove.
The Marlins win with their pitching and have a solid arm on the mound in Jesus Luzardo. It’s entirely possible Luzardo’s swing-and-miss ability stymies a struggling Padres lineup, but I have more confidence in San Diego’s hitters to rebound from a rough game than I do in the Marlins’ lineup against a seasoned veteran.
Reds vs. Red Sox Under 9 Runs (-105)
There’s some risk associated with this pick, considering two hot offenses will be playing at Fenway Park, but this feels like the day momentum can swing back toward the pitchers.
Chris Sale has started to look really impressive of late, striking out at least eight batters in three of his last four starts. He’s starting to give the Red Sox length, and he has a 2.23 ERA over his last five outings. As Sale gets closer to full strength, he may be a tough matchup for a budding but inexperienced Reds lineup.
Hunter Greene is the one who could put the under at risk, considering he’s been so volatile in his career. Lately, he’s looked better. He’s coming off six hitless innings against the Cubs and has four starts with double-digit strikeouts this season. The Reds will settle for the occasional blow-up if he can make last week’s start closer to the norm, and Thursday will be a test of that. It might be smart to ride Greene’s momentum after he was unhittable last time out.