MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Dodgers vs. Reds, Orioles vs. Brewers & More from Tuesday’s Slate (6/6/23)
All 30 teams will take the field on Tuesday, highlighted by a Mets-Braves series over in the NL East as well as a battle between the Blue Jays and Astros. Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, and Joe Musgrove are among the big-name starters taking the hill. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets from Tuesday’s action.
MLB Best Bets for June 6
Here’s a look at the best bets from Tuesday’s slate of MLB games.
Orioles Moneyline vs. Brewers (+110)
Kyle Gibson looks like he’s rediscovered something with the Orioles this season, and that has Baltimore positioned for success against a Brewers lineup that has been surviving on home runs from unlikely sources of late.
This is a Milwaukee team that hits just .224 at home and posted a dismal .661 OPS in May. That may work in the NL Central, but it’ll be tough to build much momentum against a team from the loaded AL East.
Gibson is far from the perfect pitcher, but he has a 2.93 ERA over his last five starts and has cut back on his home run rate this season – that’s a red flag for the Brewers, who might have a tough time winning without flashing some power.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta has been a mess for Milwaukee. He did settle in against the Blue Jays in his last start after getting hit around in the first inning, but Peralta thrives on strikeouts and has seen his K/9 rate dip to 9.1 this season after it was 12.2 just two years ago. With Peralta still not at his best, Orioles +110 is a nice value.
Pirates -1.5 vs Athletics (-110)
There are some redeeming qualities about the A’s, if you look close enough. A sweep in Pittsburgh isn’t guaranteed. If there’s one game they look very likely to lose, however, it’s Tuesday’s.
James Kaprielian takes an 8.12 ERA into his eighth start of the season, and while a 5.83 FIP indicates he’s only been abysmal rather than historically bad, a 1.81 WHIP and walk rate of 5.3 BB/9 are bad news against a hit-or-miss Pirates lineup. The only encouraging sign is a 4.57 ERA and 4.02 FIP since he rejoined Oakland’s rotation in May, but only one of those starts was on the road.
The Pirates will have Mitch Keller on the mound as he looks for a bounce-back start. Keller has allowed 10 ER over his last two starts, but he’s kept walks fairly low and continued to miss bats. Against an A’s lineup that averages 9.34 strikeouts per game (27th in MLB), this is a big opportunity for Keller to set the tone and for the Pirates to win big.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
The Diamondbacks have scored 5+ runs in five of their last seven games, and their offense isn’t looking like a fluke. Corbin Carroll is a legitimate all-star candidate in his rookie season, while Christian Walker has become a feared power threat and Ketel Marte is rounding back into form.
Arizona enters this series having lost two straight and has a huge bounce-back opportunity against Nationals rookie Jake Irvin. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA through six starts and is walking a ridiculous 5.7 batters per nine. This is set up for a big night from the Diamondbacks’ offense.
Could the Nationals bring the same? Tommy Henry takes the mound for Arizona with a 3.73 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP and low strikeout rate indicate regression could be coming. The Nationals hit .275 with a .767 OPS in May. While the power still isn’t all there, Washington’s lineup has a few solid contact hitters who could put some runs on the board against an inexperienced pitcher and drive up the run total.
J.D. Martinez to Hit a Home Run (+290)
Someone is going to be homering off of Luke Weaver on Tuesday. That’s what his track record tells us, at least. The former first-round pick continues to struggle at different stops and has allowed a whopping 11 home runs in under 44 innings this season. That’s a recipe for disaster against the Dodgers in a hitter-friendly park.
J.D. Martinez has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, and his success has almost exclusively come against right-handed pitchers this season. Betting on a Martinez home run Tuesday is worth the risk.