MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Mariners vs. Padres, Giants vs. Rockies & More from Wednesday’s Slate (6/7/23)
All 30 teams are back in action on Wednesday with a full slate of MLB games on tap. After a wild night that saw Elly De La Cruz make his debut and wildfire smoke take over Yankee Stadium, are we in for some more madness? Let’s take a look at some of the best bets and predictions for Wednesday’s games.
MLB Best Bets for June 7
Here’s a look at the best bets from Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Mariners vs. Padres Under 8 Runs (-120)
This is a combination of a lack of faith in the Mariners’ offense and serious faith in Seattle starter George Kirby.
Michael Wacha has been very solid for the Padres this season, and while five walks in his last start is a concern, his track record this year indicates there’s no reason to expect that to become the norm. Against the Mariners, why would it? Seattle has four of the AL’s strikeout leaders, including the only hitter with more than 80 (Teoscar Hernandez), and Wacha has been able to elevate his strikeout rate to 8.3 per nine.
On the other side, the Padres’ lineup has obvious pop but doesn’t hit for much contact. Kirby has ridiculous control (MLB-leading 0.8 walks per nine) and might be in Cy Young contention if not for a flukish four home runs allowed against the Pirates in May. This should be a low-scoring game.
Marlins -1.5 vs. Royals (+122)
The Marlins feel unsinkable against the Royals right now. They fell in a 4-0 hole on Monday and still won pretty easily, and they cruised to a win Tuesday night. Wednesday’s matchup looks like more trouble for Kansas City.
Jordan Lyles, admittedly coming off a solid start, has a dismal 6.89 ERA on the year, and the Royals have lost all 12 of his starts. Meanwhile, Edward Cabrera is coming off an excellent outing and could rack up the strikeouts against a bad Royals lineup. Kansas City averages only 3.57 runs per game on the road, and Jesus Luzardo toyed with them on Tuesday.
This is a great opportunity for Cabrera to build momentum while a Marlins offense that suddenly looks formidable with Luis Arraez batting .401 gets a chance to knock Lyles around.
Giants vs. Rockies Under 11 Runs (-104)
The over/under is elevated for this game because it’s being played at Coors Field, but is the line an overreaction to the thin air? The Rockies have a below-average offense and are going up against a red hot starter in San Francisco’s Logan Webb. Webb has a 1.95 ERA over his last eight starts, allowing no more than three runs in any of those outings. In fact, Webb allowed more than two runs in only one of them.
Considering his last start in Coors Field saw him allow just one hit, it would be surprising if the change in environment threw him off significantly.
The Giants will score runs against Connor Seabold, but the Rockies quietly don’t have a bad bullpen and San Francisco strikes out far too much to count on this Giants lineup. There are too many deficiencies in both lineups for under 11 runs not to be the pick, regardless of the elevation.
Diamondbacks Moneyline vs. Nationals (-126)
Patrick Corbin has been better this season, but that was a very, very low bar. There still isn’t much reason for the Diamondbacks to only be slight favorites against their former starter on Wednesday.
Arizona’s offense took advantage of a struggling pitcher on Tuesday, and this lineup is complete enough to do it again against Corbin and a bad bullpen. Corbin has allowed 10 ER over his last two starts, and his hit rate remains sky high at 10.9 hits per nine innings.
With the Diamondbacks’ offense firing on all cylinders, the Nationals’ path to snapping their losing streak is a difficult one. It could require an implosion from Zach Davies, who has proven to be a pedestrian starter but not a disaster.