MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees, Mets vs. Diamondbacks & More from Thursday’s Slate (7/6/23)

Thursday’s MLB slate features 12 games, more than usual for Thursday as the all-star break approaches. Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, and Eury Perez are among the big-name pitchers on the mound as teams try to gain some ground ahead of the break. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets from Thursday’s games.

MLB Best Bets for July 6

Here’s a look at the best bets from Thursday’s slate of MLB games.

Reds vs. Nationals Over 10 Runs (-105)

The only thing working against run-scoring is the fact this will be a day game played after a night game. Will it matter for two (very) young lineups? If not, there could be plenty of runs.

The Reds have scored 5+ runs in 13 of their last 17 games, and four-hit games from both Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer on Tuesday were a reminder that this lineup is too talented to hit a skid for very long.

MacKenzie Gore has been way too hit-or-miss for the Nationals of late, getting pounded for 7 ER in just 2.2 IP against the Phillies in his last start. He’s allowed 5+ ER in three of his last five starts and will have a tough time shutting down this Reds offense even if he does round back into form.

Cincinnati’s lineup is firing on all cylinders, but its starting rotation has an abysmal track record outside of Andrew Abbott. Brandon Williamson and his 5.56 ERA/5.42 FIP will be on the hill Thursday. Williamson’s home run rate and walk rate are both elevated, and this shaky Nationals lineup has enough hot hitters – Jeimer Candelario, Lane Thomas – to do some damage on a warm, humid afternoon.

Diamondbacks Moneyline (-125) vs. Mets

The Diamondbacks have been a much better offensive team than the Mets this season, and New York’s recent string of wins shouldn’t scare bettors away in this game. The key is Ryne Nelson.

The young right-hander severely disappointed early in the season but has looked fully in control of late. He’s coming off back-to-back starts that lasted at least seven innings with only three hits and one run allowed. Nelson’s control looks improved, and he’s giving up fewer hits – the hits really hurt him early in the year. At home against a Mets lineup that had a sub-.700 OPS in June, Nelson could be in line for another respectable performance.

Carlos Carrasco has similarly been better lately, but it’s always a concern to see a pitcher with an ERA near 6 carry a FIP even higher than that. Can Carrasco handle a terrific Diamondbacks lineup that has Corbin Carroll back? Even if he can, the Mets’ 9th inning scare against this team on Tuesday is a reminder the bullpen still has a ways to go. Arizona is a solid value here.

Josh Naylor to Record 2+ Hits (+200)

Josh Naylor is playing with extreme confidence right now, and there are few pitchers better to build confidence against than Jordan Lyles. While Lyles’ hit rate isn’t nearly as bad as one would expect for a pitcher with a 6.68 ERA, he’s allowing 9.8 hits per nine innings over his career and has had serious trouble with home runs. Facing a Guardians team that relies more on stringing together hits than homering, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lyles get hit around a bit.

Naylor entered Wednesday with four multi-hit performances in his last seven games, and a .387 AVG since May 30. He’s better positioned than anyone in this Cleveland lineup to get two hits on Thursday, and +200 odds give him much better value than some others.

Orioles First 5 Innings Moneyline (-124)

The Yankees might be headed nowhere if not for their bullpen, which is far and away the best in baseball and has been for most of the season. One of the biggest reasons they’ve needed every bit of that bullpen is Luis Severino, who carries a 6.30 ERA and nearly identical FIP through eight starts. He hit a new low in his last outing.

The Yankees are 4-4 in his starts, and the .500 record is only the result of the bullpen doing its job. As for the first five innings, the Orioles should be in great shape – especially with the Yankees’ offense still lacking consistency without Aaron Judge.

Kyle Bradish has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts and isn’t likely to get hit around by a Yankees lineup that has only done that against the A’s recently.