MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Pirates vs. Cubs, Reds vs. Royals & More from Tuesday’s Slate (6/13/23)

All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Tuesday, as we get another week closer to the all-star break. Look to the NL for some elite pitching, with Spencer Strider, Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, and Zack Wheeler all on the hill. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets on the board for Tuesday June 13th.

MLB Best Bets for June 13

Here’s a look at the best bets from Tuesday’s slate of MLB games.

Pirates Moneyline vs. Cubs (+125)

It’s tough to trust Jameson Taillon, or the Cubs in general, right now. This is a team that’s hitting just .177 with six home runs through 10 games in June. The Cubs haven’t hit any better at home than they have on the road, and they’re still on a downward trajectory near the bottom of the National League.

Taillon is one reason why. The veteran addition has a 7.02 ERA and 4.67 FIP in his first season with the Cubs, and he’s allowed 10.6 hits per nine innings. He regressed in his most recent start, walking four Angels and allowing 4 ER in 5.1 IP. A Pirates team that has been getting big-time production out of Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski could be a threat to Taillon.

Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds have also been generating walks of late, so Taillon’s command will be worth watching. This feels like an opportunity for a Pittsburgh road win, as long as rookie starter Luis Ortiz can limit the damage against a struggling offense.

Reds vs. Royals Over 9.5 Runs (-115)

There are two truths about the Reds becoming very clear: They can hit. They can’t pitch. Hunter Greene and potentially Andrew Abbott can pitch. The rest of the group is extremely suspect, as long as Nick Lodolo is out.

As great as the Reds’ rookies have been, there are some real red flags with Brandon Williamson. He had a 7.68 ERA at AAA before his call-up and has struggled early on in the minors with six home runs allowed in five games. The Royals average almost a full run more at home than they do on the road, and they have the power to make a dent in the Reds’ pitching staff.

On the other hand, it would almost be a surprise if Kansas City wasn’t impaled by a terrific Reds offense. Jordan Lyles has had a disastrous year, and while he’s looked a bit more stable lately, the top of this Cincinnati lineup with Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz added to the mix is just too dynamic for the Reds to have a bad night offensively. 10+ runs is easily reachable.

Guardians vs. Padres NRFI (-115)

Both the Guardians and Padres have had underwhelming offensive seasons. The Padres can hit for power but are batting just .228 as a team. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have looked a bit better of late, though it hasn’t been enough to transform the offense.

A quick home run is the fear if you’re betting a Padres NRFI. Can Tanner Bibee avoid that? The Guardians rookie has a terrific home run rate of just 0.6 per nine innings this season, and his peripheral numbers indicate his hot start isn’t much of a fluke.

On the other side, Jose Ramirez is the only real home run threat at the top of the lineup for Cleveland. Steven Kwan is simply not a home run hitter, and Amed Rosario’s bat has been disappointing this season. Joe Musgrove has settled in and allowed just 2 ER over his last three starts.

Reds Moneyline vs. Royals (+100)

The Royals are 0-13 in games started by Jordan Lyles this season. The Reds should not be an underdog in his 14th start. Cincinnati’s lineup is firing on all cylinders right now with De La Cruz, McLain, and Spencer Steer all hitting well, and the Reds have even gotten clutch hits from some under the radar hitters – Will Benson and Luke Maile – recently.

Lyles has a 6.84 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and has allowed 18 home runs this season. No matchup is great for him right now, but this is an especially tough matchup.

The Reds’ offense will admittedly be under some pressure considering Brandon Williamson has looked less than impressive and the Royals do hit better at home, but Cincinnati had a feeling of inevitability in its comeback win on Monday. With Lyles on the mound, another win feels even more inevitable.