MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Rays vs. Astros, Cubs vs. Cardinals & More on Sunday’s Slate (7/30/23)
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This article analyzes the betting odds and best bets to make on moneylines, run lines and over/under totals for MLB games on Sunday, July 30. The 7/30/23 MLB slate includes some big name pitchers like Justin Verlander and Blake Snell taking the mound, as well as a few marquee matchups like Rays vs. Astros and Yankees vs. Orioles.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 30
Here are the best moneyline, spread and over/under bets for July 30.
Rays vs. Astros under 9 runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Starting pitchers: RHP Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.36 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Bielak (5-5, 3.62 ERA)
Nine runs is a relatively high total considering the pitching matchup in this game, and getting the better odds on the under makes this a nice value pick.
Both starters in this game are having solid seasons and have been excellent in July. Tyler Glasnow has a 2.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 5 starts (31-1/3 innings), while Brandon Bielak has a 2.01 ERA and 1.12 ERA in 4 starts (22-1/3 innings).
Neither offense has been especially dangerous recently. The Rays have cooled off after their torrid start, and nobody in their lineup has ever faced Bielak. For the Astros, only first baseman Jose Abreu has more than 2 career at-bats against Glasnow, and he’s gone just 1-for-6 against him.
Unders have also been hot for both teams. The under has hit in 8 of the Rays’ last 10 games and 7 of the Astros’ last 10 (prior to Saturday’s game).
Cubs moneyline vs Cardinals (+115 at DraftKings)
Starting pitchers: RHP Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.45 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (1-7, 4.34 ERA)
Don’t look now, but the Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball.
Chicago’s bats have exploded over the last two weeks. They lead the league in runs by a wide margin and also have the best wRC+ over the same timeframe.
The hot offense has helped Chicago to go 9-1 over their last 10 games (prior to Saturday night).
Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is putting together one of the best seasons of his career at age 33, though he has fallen off some in July (4.40 ERA).
The Cubs are the underdogs in this game because Cardinals starter Steven Matz has been red-hot as well. After losing his spot in the rotation due to an awful start to the season, Matz rejoined the rotation on July 9 and has a 2.18 ERA and 2.85 FIP over his last 4 starts (20-2/3 innings).
One of those starts came against the Cubs on July 20, when Matz allowed 1 run on 3 hits over 5 innings. But that also means the Cubs have seen Matz recently, which could give them an advantage at the plate.
With attractive +115 odds, the Cubs are good value in this game.
As a bonus pick, I also like the over on 9 runs at -105 odds. Not only have the Cubs been the hottest offense lately, but the Cardinals have not been far behind. Both offenses should be able to put some runs against today’s scheduled pitchers.
Phillies moneyline vs. Pirates (-140 at DraftKings)
Starting pitchers: LHP Cristopher Sánchez (0-3, 2.98 ERA) vs. LHP Rich Hill (7-10, 4.82 ERA)
Even at -140 odds, the Phillies are a bit undervalued in this matchup with the Pirates.
The main reason for that is starter Cristopher Sánchez, who has been a very pleasant surprise for the Phillies since being called up on June 17. Given his short track record, he may not carry much weight with oddsmakers, but he seems poised for another solid outing.
Over his last 7 starts, Sánchez has posted a 2.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He has been commanding the strike zone and has walked only 4 batters over those 38 innings.
After a hot start, Pittsburgh has been struggling mightily at the plate of late. Over the last month, they are 29th in runs per game and 29th in wRC+ (before Saturday’s games).
The Phillies’ bats have not been particularly hot either, but they have been mashing lefties. They have the 7th best wRC+ against lefties over the last month at 121. Pirates starter Rich Hill has also been struggling. He has a 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over five starts in July (25 innings).
Bank on the Phillies to score some runs against Hill while Sánchez turns in another solid outing against the struggling Pirates, leading to a comfortable Phillies’ victory.
