MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Rays vs. Athletics, Phillies vs. Diamondbacks & More from Wednesday’s Slate (6/14/23)

Wednesday brings another full slate of 15 games, including more of the Subway Series and a key AL East battle between the Blue Jays and Orioles. Clayton Kershaw, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, and Gerrit Cole are among the big-name pitchers taking the hill. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets for Wednesday’s games.

MLB Best Bets for June 14

Here’s a look at the best bets in the MLB on Wednesday June 14th.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Under 8.5 Runs (+100)

These two teams played the equivalent of a shootout in the series opener on Monday, scoring 17 total runs, but that would be a very surprising result on Wednesday.

We have a strong pitching matchup in this one, especially with the way Ranger Suarez has come on of late, lasting 6+ innings in each of his last three starts for an ERA of 1.83. He hit some bumps after coming off the IL, but a 3.27 FIP indicates even better days are ahead. The Diamondbacks are easily the more potent offense in this game, so Suarez’s progress is encouraging.

On the other side, Merrill Kelly has been rock solid for Arizona and gives some length to a team with a shaky bullpen. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 13 starts, and his strikeout rate is well ahead of where it was last season. If any game in this series is going to stay low-scoring and close, it’s this one with both pitchers trending in the right direction.

Rays vs. Athletics YRFI (-102)

This is entirely a bet on the Rays to score in the first inning. Sure, the A’s don’t have a terrible lineup and have a chance to score off of Tyler Glasnow early on, but Glasnow has looked excellent of late and should be able to handle business. He allowed just one hit in his most recent start. That’s where the value (-102) comes from.

Luis Medina has been brutal enough to make this bet worthwhile. The A’s rookie has a 7.53 ERA through 34.2 innings, with a 6.64 FIP and brutal 2.6 HR/9 rate. Medina looked better in his last start, a decent performance against the Brewers, but 44.6% of his pitches were balls. If he puts a runner or two on base early, the Rays’ offense is talented enough to pounce and put at least one run on the board.

Tampa may not be hitting home runs like it did early in the season, but Medina’s home run rate means you certainly can’t rule out an early Rays homer. At -102, a first inning run is worth a shot.

Justin Turner to Hit a Home Run (+560)

It might be worth playing the matchups here and riding the hot hand. Justin Turner has four multi-hit performances in his last five games, including a home run against the Yankees, and he hits especially well against left-handed pitching. Turner is batting .304 with 4 HR and a .987 OPS in 69 at-bats against lefties this season, and he’s only gotten better of late.

Austin Gomber, the lefty he’ll be facing on Wednesday, has a 7.57 ERA on the year and has allowed an NL-worst 16 home runs. Coors Field is a factor, but Gomber simply hasn’t looked like a major-league starter this season and could be in trouble at Fenway Park.

Nationals Under 2.5 Runs vs. Astros (+104)

Under 2.5 runs is a pretty wild line, but at +104, it feels like the value is pretty solid here. AL Cy Young contender Framber Valdez has the potential to be a very difficult matchup for a struggling Nationals lineup. Washington’s offense has taken a big step back from a resurgent May, entering Tuesday night with a .661 OPS in June and proceeding to get shut down by rookie Hunter Brown.

The Nationals don’t hit home runs, and Valdez rarely gives up home runs. That alone limits the potential of the Nats’ offense on Wednesday. As long as Valdez can keep a subpar lineup from stringing together hits at Minute Maid Park, he’s in line for an excellent outing and should be able to last deep into the game. The Nationals have scored less than three runs in four of their last eight games.